INFORMS 2021 Program Book

INFORMS Anaheim 2021

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4 - The Effect of The U.S.-China Trade War and the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Effectiveness of the Promotion of U.S. Agricultural Exports Misty Blessley, Associate Professor, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, United States U.S. agricultural exports have long been vulnerable to changes in weather, politics and the global economy. Recently, agricultural exports have been hurt by the U.S.-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective of our project is to improve understanding of the factors that lead to U.S. government’s export promotion of specific agricultural product categories, and the effectiveness of the export promotions. Insights are developed through the analysis of multiple years of agricultural export promotions. The findings are expected to provide important contributions to theory, policy and practice. 5 - Proposal Evaluation Approaches and Supplier Performance Beverly Osborn, PhD Candidate, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States, John V. Gray We use a matching design to study the effects of proposal evaluation procedures, criteria, and their relative weighting on supplier performance by combining U.S. government data on contract awards with data extracted from the corresponding RFP documents. Our performance measure, recontracting, captures subjective and difficult to measure aspects of supplier performance. Our results are relevant for policymakers, buyers, and potential suppliers. SD45 CC Room 213C In Person: Scheduling Contributed Session Chair: Hua Wang, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15217- 2094, United States 1 - A Two-step Approach to Recover Aircraft Schedule under Uncertainty Ai Zhao, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States Airlines are not able to fly the published schedule due to certain disruptions sometimes. Moreover, the duration and intensity of the disruption is often uncertain. Therefore, decision makers are seeking robust solutions that limit the modifications to the operational schedule and provide some amount of contingency in case the operations encounter longer disruptions. A two-step approach minimizing the impact of the disruption on the schedule and passengers is used here for aircraft recovery. 2 - Machine Learning for Parallel Machine Scheduling in Semiconductor Manufacturing Jelle Adan, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, Netherlands This research focuses on the unrelated parallel machine scheduling with sequence and machine dependent setup times in the context of semiconductor manufacturing. Currently, a scheduling tool is used that bases its setup and process time predictions on preset deterministic parameters. When predictions off, it is necessary to deviate from the proposed schedule, counteracting efficiency. This study investigates the use of machine learning on actual production data to increase the accuracy of these predictions with the ultimate goal to increase production efficiency. 3 - Flight and Maintenance Planning for Aircraft Fleet: A Data-driven Approach Zhengyang Fan, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States, Ran Ji, KC Chang, Genshe Chen Maintaining and deploying an aircraft fleet under limited resources can be challenging. Traditional preventive maintenance methods are inflexible to subtle changes of aircraft and may lead to low level of fleet availability and high maintenance cost. We propose a learning-then-optimization condition based predictive maintenance paradigm, which determines daily flight and maintenance planning directly from readings of multiple onboard sensors. The paradigm first predicts remaining useful life for components of aircraft by using deep learning, then models the fleet level optimization as a mixed integer program which captures different failure modes of aircraft and available resources. 4 - Pharmaceutical R&D Resource Planning and Activity Scheduling Based on a Superstructure of Drug Development Pathways Hua Wang, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States, Shekhar Viswanath, Steve Guntz, Jon Dieringer, Shankar Vaidyaraman, Salvador Garcia-Munoz, Chrysanthos Gounaris We address the portfolio-wide activity planning and resource allocation problem for pharmaceutical R&D. For this, we formulate a new MILP model based on a superstructure of possible pathways for the drug development process, and we

test the model on datasets inspired from real-life operations at a major pharmaceutical company. We also show how to improve our model’s tractability by applying a number of reformulations and practical heuristic techniques. Finally, we discuss our experience with deploying a decision support tool based on our optimization approach for the systematic and largely automated derivation of development pathways and activity schedules in the real-life setting. SD46 CC Room 213D In Person: Health Care, Public Health I Contributed Session Chair: Emine Yaylali, Istanbul Technical University, Decatur, GA, 30033-3822, United States 1 - Impact of Digital Health Interventions on the Quality of Care for Children with an Autism Spectrum Disorder Hannah Mulroe, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a sharp increase in the number of virtual visits. As this becomes the new normal for non-emergent behavioral healthcare appointments, there currently lacks defined strategies to monitor the quality of these visits. This study focuses on virtual visits for pediatric patients with an Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). The study identifies variables present in a virtual visit as they relate to the six areas of quality of care. Borrowing from research in Environmental, Health, & Safety management systems, the study identifies a set of leading indicators to evaluate the impact the transition to virtual visits has had on the quality of care for pediatric ASD patients. 2 - Deadline Effect in Door-to-needle Time of Ischemic Stroke Patients Brandon Lee, Assistant Professor, University of Dayton, Dayton, OH, United States, Seokjun Youn, Lawrence Fredendall TPA (Tissue Plasminogen Activator) for stroke patients should be administered within 4.5 hours of symptom onset. The clinicians’ time for the administration of TPA depends on how much time is remaining before the 4.5 hours are fully spent (i.e., deadline effect). We examine the circumstances that mitigate such deadline effect. 3 - Injuries in Israeli Schools: An Advanced Retrospective Nationwide Six-year Analysis for Policymakers Michael Khalemsky, Head of Management Information Studies, Hadassah Academic College, Jerusalem, Israel, Eli Jaffe, Anna Khalemsky Child injury is a global public health problem. A nationwide dataset of 36,002 school injury events in Israel between 2013 and 2019 was analyzed. Exploratory research based on cluster analysis combined with advanced statistical tools revealed injury patterns. Games were identified as the prevailing cause of school injuries in Israel. Gender and age differences, and seasonal and circadian trends were observed. Comparison to international data is provided. Understanding the patterns and the trends of school injuries can enable the development of effective prevention policies on the national, municipal, and local levels, focusing the efforts on the key factors affecting injury incidence. 4 - Mathematical Models for Estimating HIV Incidence in Turkey Emine Yaylali, Assistant Professor, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey, Zikriye M. Erdogan The number of HIV patients has been decreasing in the world, however HIV incidence has been significantly increasing in Turkey in the last decade. We developed mathematical models to analyze the spread of HIV in Turkey. First, we utilized a Bernoulli model and estimated annual incidence for high risk groups. Then, we developed a dynamic compartmental model of HIV transmission and progression in Turkey to estimate HIV incidence from 2019 to 2030 and to determine continuum of care levels which represent diagnosed and treated persons. Our results suggested that both incidence and HIV-related deaths could continue to rise in the next decade, placing a significant burden on the Turkish healthcare system.

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