Informs Annual Meeting 2017

SB69

INFORMS Houston – 2017

SB69

4 - Condition-based Repair Prioritization in Repairable Inventory Supply Chains Chiel van Oosterom, Eindhoven University of Technology, PO Box 513, Eindhoven, 5600MB, Netherlands, c.d.v.oosterom@tue.nl, Joachim Jacob Arts, Geert-Jan Van Houtum We propose a model for exploiting information collected via condition monitoring of components operating in the field to dynamically prioritize repairs in a capacitated repair shop. Specifically, we consider a repair shop that supports a serial system with a number of different repairable components, which all deteriorate over time according to continuous-time Markov chains. The system is down whenever a component fails and no ready-for-use spare part is available for that component. The objective in prioritizing repairs is to maximize the long-run availability of the system. 371C QSR Best Refereed Paper Competition Sponsored: Quality, Statistics and Reliability Sponsored Session Chair: Kaibo Wang, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, kbwang@tsinghua.edu.cn Co-Chair: Prahalada Rao, PhD, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, 68588, United States, rao@unl.edu 1 - QSR Competition Kaibo Wang, Tsinghua University, Department of Industrial Engineering, Beijing, 100084, China, kbwang@tsinghua.edu.cn The QSR Best Paper Competition intends to promote outstanding research papers on the state-of-the-art methodological development and applications in the area of Quality, Reliability, Statistics, and Data Sciences. Four finalists will be selected to present their work in this session, and a winner will be identify by a panel. 2 - Effective Model Calibration via Sensible Variable Identification and Adjustment, with Application to Composite Fuselage Simulation Yan Wang, Xiaowei Yue, Rui Tuo, Jeffrey H. Hunt and Jianjun Shi We introduce a new concept of sensible variables for calibration and propose an effective calibration method to identify and adjust sensible variables with limited physical experimental data. With a skillful integration of engineering design knowledge, this method can overcome the curse of dimensionality in the calibration of composite fuselage computer model. 3 - An Integrated Manifold Learning Approach for Online Process Monitoring of Additive Manufacturing Processes Chenang Liu, Grado Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Virginia Tech, Zhenyu (James) Kong This paper is to implement a new online process monitoring method for additive manufacturing using online sensing data. To achieve this objective, an integrated manifold learning algorithm termed multi-kernel learning embedded isometric mapping (MKL-ISOMAP) is proposed. In the case studies, this method demonstrates excellent performance in data compression and prediction. 4 - Direct Learning to Rank and Rerank Cynthia Rudin and Yining Wang Learning-to-rank is directly relevant for predictive maintenance applications, where equipment needs to be prioritized for inspection or repair. This work exposes a serious problem with the state of learning-to-rank algorithms, which is that they are based on convex proxies that lead to poor approximations. We then discuss the possibility of “exact” reranking algorithms based on mathematical programming. We prove that that a relaxed version of the “exact” problem has the same optimal solution, and provide an empirical analysis. 5 - A Functional Covariate Degradation Model with Application to Degradation Analysis of Dual-phase Steel by Utilizing Its Microstructure Images Wujun Si, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI 48202, USA Qingyu Yang, Xin Wu As the first time, this article conducts degradation analysis utilizing material microstructure image information. A novel functional covariate degradation model is proposed. A penalized least squares estimation method is developed for model parameter estimation. Analytical inferences are developed. Both simulation studies and physical experiments are conducted for validation. SB68

371D Environmental impacts and the Energy-water-Food Nexus Sponsored: Energy, Natural Res & the Environment Environment & Sustainability Sponsored Session Chair: Daniel Huppmann, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), International Institute for Applied Systems Analys, Vienna, n, Austria, huppmann@iiasa.ac.at 1 - Bridging the Resolution Gap to Improve the Assessment of Sustainable Development Pathways Nils Johnson, Research Scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, johnsonn@iiasa.ac.at, Edward Byers The broad scope of global energy-economic models has required a trade-off in terms of spatial and temporal resolution with most models employing 5-10 year temporal intervals and large, often continental-scale, regions. This coarse resolution poses a challenge for exploring how fine resolution phenomena, such as water constraints and climate change, may influence energy transitions. A novel nexus assessment platform is introduced that seeks to bridge this “resolution gap”, enable linkages among global change models, and facilitate interdisciplinary research to better understand how land-energy-water interactions influence sustainable development pathways. 2 - Linking Electricity Production Cost Models with Climate and Hydrological Models: Lessons Learned from Multiple Approaches and Scenarios Jordan Macknick, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, United States, Jordan.Macknick@nrel.gov, Gregory Brinkman, Matthew O’Connell Water availability and temperature can affect thermal power plants’ heat rate, capacity, and ability to operate, due to physical- and policy-related constraints. The degree to which a generator is affected by water is determined by its fuel, prime mover, and cooling system type. Here we link an electricity production cost model with different climate and hydrologic models to examine how water resource characteristics can affect power system costs and performance characteristics, as well as sensitivities from different scenarios of water availability and temperature. The Eastern Interconnection and Western Interconnection are modeled under alternative infrastructure and climate scenarios. 3 - National and Regional Implications of Water Resource Variability and Climate Change on the Evolution of the United States Power Sector Stuart Cohen, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, United States, Stuart.Cohen@nrel.gov Water resource variability can influence U.S. power sector evolution, including technology selection, siting, and system operation. In addition, temperature rise due to climate change can affect seasonal loads, generator efficiency, and transmission capacity. We use the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model of the United States to explore how myriad climate and policy scenarios could affect the structure and operations of the U.S. power sector, from present day to 2050. We explore electric sector capacity and generation along with environmental and economic impacts. 4 - Energy-water-land Nexus: An Integrated Assessment Modeling Perspective Mohamad I. Hejazi, PNNL/JGCRI, College Park, MD, United States, mohamad.hejazi@pnnl.gov Energy, water, and land systems are increasingly interconnected. In this study, we use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), where interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land and water resources interact simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system, to investigate: 1) how water scarcity affects energy and land use decisions; 2) the effects of climate impacts; 3) how these impacts evolve under different policies in the context of the shared socioeconomic pathways; 4) the effects of different adaptation measures and their associate investment costs; and 4) the relative contributions of climate and human systems on water scarcity regionally and globally. 5 - Regional SDG Implications of the Energy-water-land Nexus Daniel Huppmann, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Matthaeusgasse 8, Vienna, Austria, huppmann@iiasa.ac.at We discuss regional impacts of the energy-water-land nexus on the Sustainable Development Goals using the MESSAGE Integrated Assessment Model.

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