Informs Annual Meeting Phoenix 2018

INFORMS Phoenix – 2018

TA41

investment of time, 2) Coaching a world champion team in the Simio student competition with limited faculty time, and 3) Managing semi open-ended applied projects with real-world clients in a class of nearly 200 students. Costs and benefits of these experiences will be discussed, with ideas on how to make them practical. Teaching materials will be distributed. 2 - Survival Tips for Teaching Undergraduate Classes, Especially Simulation Shane Henderson, Cornell University, School of ORIE 230 Rhodes Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, United States I’ll discuss my opinions on teaching undergraduate classes, with special emphasis on Monte Carlo and discrete-event simulation. The principles are mostly more general than just simulation, though. Key concepts include: If all else fails, be organized; No surprises; Design lectures like heartbeats; Avoid email; Take care with designing exams; One point wonders; Why is it true; Don’t build models in class. 3 - Teaching Undergraduate Simulation – What Works, What Doesn’t Jeffrey Smith, Auburn University, Industrial and Systems Engineering Dept, 3301 Shelby Center, Auburn University, AL, 36849-5346, United States This talk focuses on teaching undergraduate simulation in an engineering department. The material is based on the experiences of doing this for 25 years and using several simulation tools and alternative textbooks and external resources. I’ll focus on what has worked for me and what hasn’t. n TA43 North Bldg 227B Energy and Climate III Emerging Topic: Energy and Climate Emerging Topic Session Chair: Murat Erkoc, University of Miami, Hialeah, FL, 33015, , United StateUnited States 1 - A Multiobjective Model for Integrated Electricity and Natural Gas Pipeline Networks with Nonlinear Natural Gas Investment Cost Ahmet Akgun, Wichita State University, Wichita, KS, 67226, United States, Mehmet Bayram Yildirim, Mehmet Barut A multi-objective mathematical model for long-term integrated electricity and natural gas pipeline network is presented. The multiobjective model optimizes both electricity and natural gas networks simultaneously to determine the type of generation and transmission units, the location and capacity of these units. The nonlinear natural gas investment cost function is linearized by using PLA method. 2 - Energy Policy Making with a Multi-objective Multi-perspective Game Theoretic Approach Busra Keles, University of Miami, 1251 Memorial Drive, McArthur Engineering Building, Coral Gables, FL, 33146, United States, Murat Erkoc, Nurcin Celik Current energy policy solutions are struggling to overcome strategic decisions that involve a large number of stakeholders, sustainable actions of exploiting renewable energy sources, future capacity investments, and economical regulations. This paper addresses these issues and handles a energy policy making problem on the development and incentivization of energy policies. The problem is stated as a multi-objective (economic well-being, environmental protection, and energy surety) multi-perspective problem, and the solution framework is proposed in a game theoretic approach. Our approach overcomes the problem of valuation of con?icted objectives in an uncertain environment. 3 - A Dynamic Data-driven Application Systems for Infosymbiotic Challenges of Solar-powered Microgrids Haluk Damgacioglu, PhD. Candidate, University of Miami, Miami, FL, 33143, United States, Nurcin Celik The integration of renewable energy sources and energy storage systems into microgrids premises energy resilience and independence for the communities. Yet, this integration, together with the uncertainties in the power supply and demand, makes the control of such microgrids quite challenging. Here, we present a preliminary dynamic-data-driven adaptive systems framework for the design and configuration of a solar-powered microgrid for a real world case study. Our approach shows promising results in terms of selecting the best available design using a tractable robust optimization model and a multi-fidelity microgrid simulation.

n TA41 North Bldg 226C Decision Analysis, Game Theory, Big Data, and Homeland Security Sponsored: Decision Analysis Sponsored Session Chair: Jun Zhuang, PhD, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, 14260, United States 1 - Concentrated vs. Distributed Defense as a Deterrent to Cyber Attackers: A Behavioral Analog Simulation Game Richard S. John, University of Southern California, Dept of Psychology MC 1061, Los Angeles, CA, 90089-1061, United States, Sarah Kusumastuti, Heather Rosoff, James Blythe Deterrence is an important component of cyber security that requires an understanding of attacker perceptions of success uncertainty. We developed an analog simulation game that offers attackers 4 different types of equally defended targets, including 3 with concentrated defenses at 1 of 3 different layers and 1 with a distributed (layered) defense. A total of 80 attackers played 36 rounds of the game in which the likelihood of success was held constant for all 4 target types. Compared to the distributed (layered) defense, attackers preferred to attack the concentrated defenses at the 2nd and 3rd layers, and were most deterred by the concentrated defense at the perimeter. 2 - Optimal Standard of Human Rights in Countering an Insurgency: Theory and Empirical Analysis of AFSPA in India Aniruddha Bagchi, Kennesaw State University, 1000 Chastain Road, MD 0403, Kennesaw, GA, 30144, United States, Jomon Paul We explore why human rights violations take place in the midst of a rebellion. Our results indicate that faulty intelligence compels governments to tolerate human rights violations of its armed forces. We then examine the effect of a decrease in the human rights standard on the probability of quelling the rebellion. In our theoretical model, this effect is indeterminate (that is, can be positive or negative). We therefore empirically quantify this effect using the case of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) in India. We find that a lowering of the standard of human rights reduces the chance of quelling the rebellion and this effect is statistically significant. 3 - Denuclearization or Not? A Multiple-player Sequential , United State Game Model Jun Zhuang, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United States, Puyu Ye The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) nuclear crisis is a complex international issue. We use a multiple-player sequential game model to analyze the strategic interactions of these players. A multi-attribute (politics, economy, military) utility model is used for each player. The developed framework provides insights to decision making in this complex and important issue of denuclearization. 4 - Does Learning from Past-disasters Make Future Disasters Costlier?: Insights from Fema’s Public Assistance Allison C. Reilly, Assistant Professor, University of Maryland, , 4298 Campus Dr., College Park, MD, 20742, United States, Hamed Ghaedi The factors that explain rising costs of natural disasters are numerous: more intense hazards, more exposure in vulnerable places, and the lack of preparedness by residents. However, in the era of more frequent hazards, might disaster costs be rising because some individuals and organizations are simply learning how to more effectively apply for disaster aid? In this research, using statistical methods, we explore the propensity and ability of organizations to file for disaster aid based on their previous experience(s) filing for aid.

n TA42 North Bldg 227A Teaching Simulation Sponsored: Simulation Sponsored Session Chair: Laurel Travis, Virginia Tech

1 - Adventures in Teaching Simulation: Virtual Reality, Vendor Competitions, and Real-world Projects in Very Large Classes Laurel E. Travis, Virginia Tech, 3440 Cameo Lane, Blacksburg, VA, 24060, United States We will discuss “tales from the field in teaching simulation within resource constraints. Specifically, 1) Introducing virtual reality into a discrete-event simulation course without any investment in equipment and only a small

258