Informs Annual Meeting Phoenix 2018

INFORMS Phoenix – 2018

TD43

2 - The Cyber Threat and Options For Deterrence Jonathan W. Welburn, RAND Corporation, 4570 Fifth Ave #600, Mailstop 3, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, United States The risk of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure has materialized beyond science fiction. The realistic threat of attacks on the power grid underscores the need for novel policy actions that deter adversaries and enhance resilience. We model the potential impact of cyberattacks on the grid, highlighting economic consequences and strategies for deterrence. 3 - Frameworks for Cybersecurity are Failing Igor Mikolic-Torreira, PhD, RAND Corporation, Arlington, VA, United States Effective cybersecurity can be attained by creating financial incentives for manufacturers to produce secure technologies, or from legal frameworks that protect users and set standards for vendors. Based on four role-playing exercises we conducted in the U.S. and Australia during the past two years with over 200 participants, we find that both models are failing: existing financial incentives for security are insufficient at best, and society has not implemented a regulatory model for cybersecurity. Our approach also served to illuminate the cybersecurity interests and priorities of governments, the business community, private organizations, and individuals; helped us understand the roles of these various groups in cybersecurity; and set the stage for us to explore how legal, economic, and societal mechanisms might be harnessed to advance cybersecurity. 4 - Targets and Attackers: Cybersecurity and Commercial UAVs Katharina Ley Best, The RAND Corporation, 5836 Ferree Street, Pittsburgh, PA, 15217-1452, United States RAND will discuss a framework for assessing cybersecurity risks related to increased adoption of commercial UAVs by government/law enforcement, adversaries, and civilians. The framework helps policymakers identify and think about risk related to cybersecurity and UAVs, covering cases where UAVs are cybersecurity targets as well cases where UAVs are serving as cybersecurity weapons. In building the framework, we use a variety of methods, including the STRIDE threat model and the cyber kill chain, to understand and inventory the UAS/cybersecurity threat space. We include a review of attacks, introduce key industry trends that affect the complexity of the UAV and cybersecurity landscape, and highlight implications for policymakers. Sponsored: Analytics Sponsored Session Chair: Davit Khachatryan, Babson College, 231 Forest St, Babson Park, MA, 02457, United States 1 - Uncovering Insight from Patent Data using Text Mining Davit Khachatryan, Babson College, Babson Park, MA, 02021, United States, Brigitte Muehlmann In 1790 President George Washington signed a bill launching a framework which over decades evolved into the modern patent system in the United States. Today the United States Patent and Trademark Office receives more than half a million patent applications annually. In this talk, I will provide a background on patenting and discuss a recent project that involves text mining of patents related to cybersecurity. I will discuss how topic modeling and in particular Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) can be used to define a measure for assessing the alignment between patent claims and specification. I will then illustrate how the newly defined measure can be of value to entrepreneurs and patent examiners. 2 - Relieving Emergency Room Overcrowding through Data Modeling Courtney Paulson, Assistant Professor, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, United States Maryland has the longest ER wait times in the nation primarily due to ER overcrowding. In partnership with the University of MD Medical Center, we explore several interventions to alleviate hospital patient pressures. One (Mobile Integrated Healthcare) is designed to provide effective, efficient care outside the hospital. Paramedics and nurses with advanced training assist identified patients off-site. We also consider in-house practices like stationing physical therapists in the ER to reduce wait times for consultations. We show this can result in significant decreases in ER length of stay. 3 - Realizing the Commercial Value of Healthcare Innovation Dessislava Pachamanova, Babson College, Math/Science Dept, 319 Babson Hall, Babson Park, MA, 02457, United States, Sinan Erzurumlu We develop a framework for identifying factors that contribute to the commercial value of innovations. We illustrate the approach on data from a large healthcare provider, and discuss strategic implications of the findings. n TD42 North Bldg 227A Mining Data for Business Intelligence

4 - Are Major Airlines Losing the Battle? Investigation of Contrasting Market Domination Strategies Farbod Farhadi, Roger Williams University, 1 Old Ferry Road, Bristol, RI, 02809, United States, Amirhossein Alamdar Yazdi There has been substantial research on competition between legacy and low cost airlines in the US domestic passenger market. This competition mainly takes place in the medium haul and short haul flights. However, the nature of competition in these markets are substantially different. In this study we demonstrate the contrasting strategies of legacy airlines in these two market types, and investigate the domination rules in a 10-year panel of US domestic air transport data. 5 - Health Care Process Mining for Hospital Workflow Improvements Ranjith Tellis, Philips Research North America, Cambridge, MA, United States, Michael Prokle, Jevita Poer, Ushanandini Raghavan, Christopher Hall, Sandeep Dalal, Prabhakar Dixit The switch to value-based reimbursement drives health care leaders to further explore innovative ways to reduce costs while keeping patient and staff satisfaction at the highest possible level. New and available data sources are combined to propel innovative solutions for clinical decision-making. Taking an operational view in hospital workflow, we highlight key insights and learning from mining health care data for modeling, simulating, and optimizing of a Boston area interventional radiology department. We discuss how process mining, simulation, and optimization can be integrated for quick decision-making and present multiple practical use cases with actionable case study results. n TD43 North Bldg 227B Informing Energy Technology Commercialization through Systems Analysis Emerging Topic: Energy and Climate Emerging Topic Session Chair: Daniel Sanchez, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, DC, United States 1 - Near-term Deployment of Carbon Capture and Sequestration from Biorefineries in the United States Daniel Sanchez, University of California-Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States Capture and permanent geologic sequestration of biogenic CO2 emissions may provide critical flexibility in ambitious climate change mitigation. However, most bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) technologies are technically immature or commercially unavailable. Here, we evaluate low-cost, commercially ready CO2 capture opportunities for existing ethanol biorefineries in the United States. The analysis combines process engineering, spatial optimization, and lifecycle assessment to consider the technical, economic, and institutional feasibility of near-term carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). 2 - City-Integrated Renewable Energy for Sustainable and Resilient Power Systems Deborah Sunter, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United Statesu To prepare for an urban influx of 2.5 billion people by 2050, it is critical to create cities that are low carbon, resilient, and livable. We explore options for establishing sustainable urban energy systems by reducing and shifting energy consumption, particularly in the buildings and transportation sectors, and providing robust, decentralized, and renewable energy sources. Through technical advancements in power density, city-integrated renewable energy will be better suited to satisfy the high-energy demands of growing urban areas. 3 - The Role of Technology Innovation in Methane Emissions Mitigation Policy Arvind P. Ravikumar, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States Rapid development in unconventional oil and gas resources have raised concerns regarding associated methane emissions. Methane, a highly potent greenhouse gas, contributes about 25% to anthropogenic global warming. Because of low gas prices, solutions to detect and repair methane emissions needs to be cost-effective. In this talk, I will discuss new technological approaches such as truck-, drone-, and plane-based systems to rapidly detect methane emissions at oil and gas facilities. Using techno-economic modeling, I describe how such innovative approaches can be incorporated within a policy framework to achieve cost- effective emissions mitigation.

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