Informs Annual Meeting Phoenix 2018

INFORMS Phoenix – 2018

TE59

4 - Proactive Dynamic Alteration of Hospital Operations Under Severe Weather Events with Forecast Updates Mahsa Ghanbarpour, Northeastern University, 360 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA, 02215, United States, Ozlem Ergun Preparedness and response planning are necessary to reduce the adverse impacts of severe weather and other environmental emergencies. This study introduces a decision-making framework that optimizes the level and timing of proactive actions by analyzing the trade-offs between making more accurate decisions with better weather forecasts vs. increasing cost of action as the event approaches. This tradeoff is captured by a stochastic dynamic programming. In this study, our aim is to apply this framework to cancel pro-actively and dynamically elective surgeries in anticipation of a snowstorm, with the goal of reducing the negative impact of the event before, during, and after the event. n TE59 West Bldg 102A Data-driven Decision Making in Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Supply Chains Sponsored: Health Applications Sponsored Session Chair: Hui Zhao, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, United States Co-Chair: Liang Xu, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, 16801, United States 1 - Analysis And Optimization in Recruitment Stocking Problems Anh Tuan Ninh, 1604 Queens Crossing, Williamsburg, VA, 23185, United States, Yao Zhao, Benjamin Melamed We study a new class of inventory control problems, the recruitment stocking problem (RSP), with applications to general recruitment systems, such as clinical trials, product sampling, and sales of products with limited supplies. 2 - Informing Pharmaceutical Regulation Through Economic Modeling and Predictive Analytics Matthew Rosenberg, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD, United States The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is the regulatory agency responsible for ensuring that prescription and over-the-counter pharmaceuticals are safe, effective, and of high manufacturing quality. As part of fulfilling its mission, FDA makes decisions that impact the supply chain, the marketplace, and public health. In this presentation, I will provide examples of research projects that have informed FDA’s regulatory decisions; examples may be drawn from topics such as generic drug competition and resource capacity planning. I will also highlight potential opportunities for future collaboration with academic researchers. 3 - Outcome-based Reimbursement for Pharmaceuticals with Uncertain Effectiveness Liang Xu, Pennsylvania State University, 419A Business Building, Penn State University, State College, PA, 16801, United States, Hui Zhao, Hongmin Li Insurers usually have to decide whether to cover an expensive new drug and the corresponding co-payment, given the uncertainty of the drug’s effectiveness among general patients in clinical practices. As a result, insurers assume great risk of spending a substantial amount of money on drugs which may turn out not to deliver the intended health benefits. This paper investigates how the outcome- based reimbursement (OBR) scheme mitigates such risk and its impacts on the manufacturer, the insurer and patients. n TE60 West Bldg 102B Resource Allocation and Capacity Management Sponsored: Health Applications Sponsored Session Chair: Mahesh Nagarajan, University of British Columbia, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z2, Canada Co-Chair: Yichuan Ding, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1C3, Canada 1 - How Early is Too Early for a Preemptive Kidney Transplant? An MDP-Based Retrospective Analysis Masoud Barah, PhD Candidate, University of Tennessee, 524S John D. Tickle Building,, 851 Neyland Drive, Knoxville, TN, 37996-2315, United States, Murat Kurt, Anahita Khojandi, Bekir Tanriover

Living-donor preemptive kidney transplantation provides survival and financial benefits. We consider transplant timing decisions for chronic kidney disease patients, and develop an MDP model in which patient’s evolving health is defined by glomerular filtration rate. We apply the model to identify optimal transplant decisions and associated survival outcomes for patients who received kidney transplants preemptively in US between 2000-2017, and compared the results with their actual counterparts. 2 - Evaluating the Importance of Non-facetime Work in Patient Panel Complexity Michael Hu, MIT, Cambridge, MA, 02139, United States, Joe Doyle, Stephanie Eisenstat, Retsef Levi Primary care physicians (PCPs) have traditionally been paid according to activities-based compensation models. Health systems are now moving to patient panel-based payments. This requires determining the workload associated with different patient panels. Until now, panels have been evaluated using risk scores that measure clinical complexity. However, risk scores do not capture non- facetime work, such as visit documentation & staff communication, which consumes substantial PCP time. We demonstrate that risk scores do not accurately measure the workload of patient panels. We then create prediction models that reliably estimate the workload required to manage different patients. 3 - Online Bed Assignment with Uncertain Length of Stays Van-Anh Truong, Columbia University, 500 West 120th Street, 338 Mudd Hall, New York, NY, 10027, United States, Sicong Li We study a resource-allocation problem that commonly arises in service settings. In these settings, there is a nite set of resources available over a horizon. Customers arrive over time, each of whom requires a resourcefor some duration of time that is possibly random, depending on his or her needs. The system collects areward whenever it assigns a customer to a resource for the entire duration of need. This problem arises ina number of service applications, including healthcare and transportation applications. 4 - A Centralized Allocation Mechanism for Public Housing Weihua Zhang, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 2G9, Canada, Yichuan Ding, Daniel Granot In 2014, US programs of federal rental assistance helped nearly five million families. We model the affordable housing allocation problem as a centralized decision problem. The HA strives to accommodate move-in requests as well as requests of transfer between housing types. We assume that households list the housing types that they would accept without specifying their complete preference order. We further assume that the housing units of each type are homogeneous. For minimizing vacancy rate and maximizing portability (the responsiveness of the HA to households’ accommodation requests), we formulate the problems as network flow problems and characterize the optimal solutions. n TE61 West Bldg 102C Models and Methods for Healthcare Operations and Policies Sponsored: Health Applications Sponsored Session Chair: Xiang Zhong, PhD, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, United States Co-Chair: Michelle Alvarado, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, United States 1 - A Finite Capacity Queuing Network Model for Analysis of Patient Transitions within Hospitals Hyo Kyung Lee, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States, Albert J. Musa, Philip A. Bain, Christine Baker, Jingshan Li Although patient transfer plays a critical role in providing the continuity of medical care, the impact of transitions is often undertaken. Thus, we present a queueing network model to analyze patient transitions between emergency department, intensive care unit, and general ward within a hospital. Routings with feedback flows are considered under general arrival and service processes and the effects of blocking on performance measures are presented. In addition, the impacts of bed capacity, admission rate, as well as system variabilities, are discussed to seek managerial insights.

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