Informs Annual Meeting Phoenix 2018

INFORMS Phoenix – 2018

TE75

4 - Efficiency and Risk Trade-off in Security Screening Operations Mehmet Aydemir, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, United States, Alexandre Jacquillat, Alan Scheller-Wolf The management of screening systems involves a trade-off between efficiency and risk. We model a screening system with a range of screening options having different service and risk mitigation characteristics, in which the controller can dynamically select the screening option based on job-level risk profile information. We propose a multi-class Markov decision process model of the control of such a screening system as a function of observed queue length and risk profile information. We show that the optimal policy exhibits a threshold behavior. We extend this model to a setting where customers are strategic. We find conditions where slower screening policies lead to shorter queue lengths. 5 - Data Driven Variability Analysis of Vehicle Routes Debdatta Sinha Roy, Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, 7699 Mowatt Lane, 3330 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD, 20742, United States, Bruce L. Golden Delivery and service companies need to send out multiple vehicles to deliver customer products and provide services to customers in a city every single day. These companies generate the vehicle routes using routing software and algorithms provided by third party clients. It is a matter of great importance to maintain the workload balance among the drivers of a company, i.e., the drivers should have similar route times (inclusive of the service times). Based on real route times generated using two different third party software on various street networks, we perform statistical analysis to understand and quantify the variability in the route times and, thereby, make recommendations to the companies. n TE73 West Bldg 211B JFIG Panel Discussion: Getting Research Funding Sponsored: Junior Faculty JFIG Sponsored Session Chair: Anahita Khojandi, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, 37996, United States Co-Chair: Ehsan Salari, Wichita State University, Wichita, KS, 67260, United States JFIG Panel Discussion: Getting Research Funding Ehsan Salari, Wichita State University, 120C Engineering Building, 1845 Fairmount St., Wichita, KS, 67260, United States Panelists will share their experiences and insights on how to successfully secure funding from a broad array of funding agencies. Panelists Jim Ostrowski, University of Tennessee, 11421 Old Colony Pkwy, Knoxville, TN, 37934, United States Javad Lavaei, University of California, Berkeley, 4141 Etcheverry Hall, Berkeley, CA, 94720, United States Amir Ali Ahmadi, Princeton University, Dept. of Operations Research&Financial Eng., Sherrerd Hall (room 329), Charlton Street, Princeton, NJ, 08544, United States Preference-driven Decision Aiding II Sponsored: Multiple Criteria Decision Making Sponsored Session Chair: Adiel Teixeira De Almeida Filho, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife-PE, 50.630-971, Brazil Co-Chair: Roman Slowinski, Poznan University of Technology, 60-965, Poland 1 - Resource Allocation with Fairness-based Preferences Nikolaos Argyris, Loughborough University, School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, United Kingdom We consider the problem of a inequality-averse central planner distributing resources across different parties. Taking an axiomatic approach, we construct an “equitable preference ordering combining structural assumptions with preference information. We show that the set of functions that represent the preference n TE74 West Bldg 212A

ordering has a succinct polyhedral characterization. We use this to compute the subset of “equitably-efficient” resource distributions. We show how these results can be used to introduce fairness constraints in optimization formulations of resource allocation problems (e.g. to stipulate that the optimal distribution must equitably-dominate a reference distribution). 2 - Preference Driven Private Banking Decisions: A Personal Investment Portfolio Optimization Framework Adiel Teixeira De Almeida Filho, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Caixa Postal 7471, Cx Postal 7471, Av. General San Martin,1083, Recife-PE, 50.630-971, Brazil, Drance Oliveira, Luciano Ferreira, Denis Borenstein, Marcelo Righi Since the mean-variance approach, portfolio optimization has been developed and recent literature addresses two main streams: (i) the incorporation of alternative risk measures and (ii) the development of new models and innovative problem formulation to enable additional characteristics that the investor wish to consider or that financial services are obliged to comply due to regulation. This work focuses on the latter issue in portfolio modeling for private banking into a preference driven process by integrating throughout a decision process framework to support portfolio selection. 3 - Evaluating Credit Risk of Brazilian Debentures Through a New Preference Disaggregation Approach Diogo Ferreira de Lima Silva, MSc, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife-PE, 50630971, Brazil, Adiel Teixeira De Almeida Filho, Luciano Ferreira Given the importance of credit risk evaluations for individual investors and financial agents, new approaches and models have been formulated over the years. In Brazil, sovereign and corporate bonds are among the leading investment alternatives. This work presents a preference disaggregation for sorting problems within the TOPSIS method. Using real data collected from public financial statements the proposed approach is used to evaluate these corporate bonds. 4 - A Preference Driven Approach for Determining the Ideal Inspection Interval for a Runway with Delay Time Modeling Naiara Meireles de Souza, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, 50630971, Brazil, Marcelo Hazin Alencar, Adiel Teixeira De Almeida Filho We sought to determine an inspection interval for an airport runway located in Northeast of Brazil through a maintenance and inspection policy based on Delay Time Modeling, considering cost and availability. n TE75 West Bldg 212B Development, Acquisition, and Maintenance Sponsored: Military and Security Sponsored Session Chair: Jesse Pietz, U.S. Air Force, 8991 Shadowlake Way, Springfield, VA, 22153, United States 1 - Tradespace Analytics for Air Force Acquisition Programs Jesse Pietz, U.S. Air Force, Washington, DC, United States Each year the United States Air Force (USAF) must weigh multiple priorities in order to determine how to allocate its multibillion-dollar budget among thousands of major acquisition programs. This talk describes an analytical approach that combines an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and cost forecasting within a Monte Carlo sampling framework to generate a tradespace that allows decision makers to visualize and assess the marginal value of their program decisions, and explores the many modeling challenges that result. 2 - Advances in Obsolescence Management Utilizing Reliability Theory Christina Mastrangelo, University of Washington, 2319 44th Avenue SW, Seattle, WA, 98116, United States Obsolescence issues grow as the lifecycles of most electronic parts decrease. This talk focuses on forecasting obsolescence for a DoD application and describes a method to accurately forecast the likelihood of lifecycle duration to support a proactive strategy to manage future obsolescence events. The basis is the calculation of corresponding probabilities of obsolescence for each part in a system via reliability theory and Bayesian calculations. This approach is extended by examining the shortening of product life cycles in conjunction with the shape of the product life cycle curve which leads to the prediction of obsolescence. The research presents an innovation in system level obsolescence.

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