Informs Annual Meeting Phoenix 2018

INFORMS Phoenix – 2018

WD50

3 - Online Resilience Support for Grid Cyber-Physical Situational Awareness Katherine Davis, PhD, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, United States High-quality situational awareness enables rational tactical and strategic decision support. This talk describes work on bringing together expertise and methodologies for cyber-physical grid resilience that each make significant progress toward this goal. We explore synergies of these efforts and describe how they can lead to enhanced situational awareness across domains, where the focus is on the decision-making process in real-time cyber-physical systems though the steps of observe-orient-decide-act. The talk will investigate the design of the decision-making process in the CyPSA framework with a focus on decisions that promote grid cyber-physical resilience. 4 - Networked Community Microgrids Planning for Enhancing the Resilience in Power Grids Masoud Barati, PhD, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, 15260, United States We proposed a resilient planning problem of networked microgrids with DERs. We integrate the investment problem and two sets of operating problems associated with the grid-connected and islanding modes of microgrids into a two- stage stochastic model to capture randomness nature of hazard events and long-term load growth, as well as the islanding risk caused by external disturbances with a joint-chance constraint to prevent the risks. A SOCP formulation is presented to incorporate AC-OPF in short-term operation. Numerical results on distribution systems prove the effectiveness of the model. 5 - AC Optimal Power Flow with Robust Feasibility Guarantees Line Roald, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87544, United States With increasing uncertainty from renewable energy, optimization problems that explicitly consider uncertainty are increasingly important to the operation of electric power systems. We discuss our work towards a robust AC Optimal Power Flow (OPF) algorithm. Ensuring robust feasibility requires 1) ensuring solvability of the power flow equations and 2) guaranteeing feasibility of the engineering constraints for all uncertainty realizations. We use convex relaxations to bound the impact of uncertainty, leading to conservative results. The solution is obtained using an alternating solution algorithm, and the approach is illustrated via analyses of two small test cases. n WD49 North Bldg 230 Energy Policy and Planning IV Contributed Session Chair: Mark Rodgers, Rutgers Business School, South Orange, NJ, 07079-1466, United States 1 - Electric Business Modeling for Optimal Design of Isolated Power Systems Aito Yasuda, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan, Hiroshi Morita In recent years, long-term cut off of power supply is anticipated by large-scale disasters. An isolated electric system is an electric power model in which power demand equipment is operated by a power generation and a storage battery without using power supply from the grid. We derive an optimal design of the capacity of solar panel and storage battery of isolated electric system to keep the quality of life in the event of disaster. We also investigate an operation model for multiple isolated electric systems connected by a network. 2 - Risky Capacity Equilibrium Models for Risk Averse Investment Equilibria with Incomplete Markets Daniel Ralph, University of Cambridge, Judge Business School, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1AG, United Kingdom, Gauthier de Maere, Andreas Ehrnemann, Yves Smeers Risky Capacity Equilibrium Problems” incorporate (i) risk averse investment in power plants, (ii) financial trading to hedge those investments, and (iii) strategic production in a stochastic spot market. These models concatenate short-term electricity market (perfect competition or Cournot) with long-term investments (risk neutral or risk averse behaviour in different risk trading settings). We focus on incomplete financial markets, when not all risks can be traded, using results from “Risky Design Equilibrium Problems” and standard Nash game techniques to show existence of equilibria. Numerical results show the impact of incompleteness on equilibrium capacity and spot prices. 3 - Solving the Bi-level Problem of a Closed Optimization of Price Zone Configurations in Europe Using a Genetic Algorithm Tim Felling, Research Assistant, University Duisburg-Essen, Berliner Platz 6-8, Essen, 45127, Germany In Europe, the reconfiguration of price zones (PZ) is under discussion in both politics and academia. Yet, current research focusses either on approximations using algorithms that cluster nodes to PZ for large-scale grids or on closed optimizations on smaller scale. We contribute to the discussion by formulating the problem of optimal PZs as a closed bi-level problem that considers day-ahead and

redispatch markets. The PZ configuration is reflected by a node-to-zone assignment using binary variables. For its solution, we apply a suited genetic algorithm on a large-scale grid of Western Europe. 4 - Market Model for Electric Vehicle Battery Aggregator Ivan Pavic, University of Zagreb, Unska 3, Zagreb, 10000, Croatia, Hrvoje Pandzic, Tomislav Capuder There are more then three million EVs on the roads which accounts to more then 70 GWh of storage capacity. Controlled charging can become an interesting option to provide flexibility to power system. EV aggregator is an entity which groups EV chargers and submit their aggregated power on electricity or balancing markets. Such entity can use EVs’ flexibility only when they connected to their dedicated chargers. We propose a new entity called electric vehicle battery aggregatorv (EVBA) which follows EV as part of internet of things concept and charge them optimally for end-users throughout longer periods. EVBA concept can be part of EV routing and infotainment application responsible for power supply. 5 - System Implications of Continuous-time Dispatching in Electricity Markets Mark Rodgers, Assistant Professor, Rutgers Business School, 1 Washington Park, Newark, NJ, 07102, United States, Wenbo (Selina) Cai, Xiaowei Xu, Frank A. Felder In centralized electricity markets, supply and demand are balanced on discrete time intervals, but demand volatility occurs on a more granular level. Additionally, markets with large renewable shares experience higher levels of supply volatility due to intermittent weather patterns. While batteries partially reduce supply volatility, there is a need for a real-time, load-balancing mechanism. In this research, we study the supply and demand volatility in the context of a continuous time, load-balancing framework. Additionally, we assess the resulting effects of this framework, along with the impact of battery storage investments, on wholesale electricity prices. n WD50 North Bldg 231A Strategic Planning and Applications I Contributed Session Chair: Achal Bassamboo, Northwestern University, 2001 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL, 60208, United States 1 - In Need of Aid: Funding Uncertainty and Diversification in Humanitarian Operations Gloria Urrea, Indiana Unviersity, 3631 East Park Lane, Bloomington, IN, 47408, United States, Sebastian Villa, Eric Quintane Research on resource dependence focuses on the strategies dependent organizations follow to access resources in order to survive. In the humanitarian context, humanitarian organizations (HOs) depend on resources from donors and diminish their dependence by accessing multiple sources of funding. We argue that while finding additional sources of funding reduces current uncertainty and enables survival, it decreases the organization’s capacity to diversify (i.e. to venture into new service sectors and geographical regions) because it does not reduce future uncertainty. We use information from over 30,000 donations provided by 222 donors to 845 HOs during 1999-2016 to test our hypotheses. 2 - Tracking Passengers’ Routes in Urban Railway Networks Using Integer Programming Daichi Tahara, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan, Shunji Umetani, Hiroshi Morita The analysis of a population’s mobility patterns has become much important in recent years. However, it still remains much difficult due to incompleteness and unreliability of public traffic survey data. We now propose an integer programming approach to track individual passengers’ routes in urban railway networks from a given spatiotemporal distribution of anonymous passengers. We evaluated the proposed method numerically based on Japanese public traffic survey data, and observed that it tracked actual passengers’ routes with high accuracy. 3 - Launching Next Generation Products in a Competitive Market Rob A. Zuidwijk, Professor Ports in Global Networks, Erasmus University Rotterdam, RSM Erasmus University, P.O. Box 1738, Rotterdam, 3000 DR, Netherlands, Xishu Li, Rene de Koster, Suresh P. Sethi We report on our research on how two competing firms launch a next-generation product (NGP) in terms of timing and capacity allocation between the NGP and an existing basic product. Our research focuses on the impact of a two- dimensional competition: the internal competition between the two products and the external competition between the two firms. We demonstrate that demand uncertainty and competition between the firms should be taken into account jointly while deciding on timing and capacity allocation.

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