Policy & Practice February 2015

washington viewpoint By Ron Smith

Ron Smith is APHSA’s director of legislative affairs.

Realpolitik and Reconciliation What to Watch for in 2015

R ealpolitik is the concept of policy development based primarily on practical considerations as opposed to an explicit ideological doctrine. The 114th Congress convened in January with both chambers under the control of Republicans but lacking sufficient power to override a presidential veto. The dominant question for 2015 is if the new congressional leadership feels that they have a mandate from the electorate to enact the policy positions their candidates expressed during the 2014 elections, or will they choose to pursue legislation based on the prac- tical calculation that the president still is a major player when it comes to policy development? Judging from the debates that took place during the 2014 lame-duck session, it would appear that members of both chambers are readying for a fight with the president in 2015. To fully understand the strategy that the majority in Congress is likely to adopt, and the potential limita- tions of that strategy, it is important to have a basic understanding of some of the legislative tools available to the congressional leaders. While a congressional majority might want to confront the president on a number of policies, repeal of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is well known to be high on the list. Repeal of the Affordable Care Act also represents an excellent case study of the limitations facing Congress when enacting policies opposed by the president. The Senate is Ground Zero The first maxim to keep in mind is that a determined majority in the House of Representatives always gets

The Byrd Rule, named for West Virginia Senator Robert Byrd, plays a major role in congressional budget negotiations.

caucused with them, thus having a de facto margin of 60 votes. Prior to then, the last time a party had a 60-vote margin was in 1977. 2 With this coun- try’s current political alignment, it is unlikely that either party will hold a 60-vote margin in the foreseeable future. Senate rules still require a 60-vote hurdle for most legislation, 3 but it is critical to understand that certain bills, by law, are not subject to a Senate filibuster. Thus, it only takes 51 votes for the current majority to pass legislation strongly opposed by the minority. Other than those few opportunities, the majority is five votes short of passing much of their legisla- tive agenda. Moreover, for the next two years President Obama has the

its way. 1 The rules of the House ensure that the Speaker, by definition the leader of the majority party, has suf- ficient tools at their disposal to get any bill passed as long as their caucus agrees. The minority party can use certain procedures to delay passage of measures they disagree with, but for the most part all they can do is force a vote or two on motions that are doomed to fail. This reality explains why the Senate is often ground zero on highly controversial issues. A deter- mined majority in the Senate is not guaranteed success unless it has at least 60 votes. The last time either party held 60 seats in the Senate was a very brief time in 2009 when Democrats had 58 seats and two independent members

Photograph by Alex Wong

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February 2015 Policy&Practice