Policy & Practice | Summer 2025

from our partners

By Molly Tierney and Heidi Reed

Anticipating the Ripple: How Policy Shifts in TANF and Medicaid Could Reshape Child Welfare

A s states across the country brace for changes in federal- and state-level funding to social support programs, child welfare experts have a clear message: When foundational supports for families are weakened, child welfare systems often bear the brunt—months later, and with limited tools to respond. The HiddenTimeline of Harm Cuts to programs like Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and housing support don’t immediately show up in child welfare caseloads. Instead, the impact

expansion and continuity in coverage are associated with lower rates of child welfare system involvement. Access to health care reduces economic hardship and ensures children receive preven tive and emergency care—both of which are essential to family stability. The Systemic Response: Scrambling to Catch Up When child welfare systems are hit with a sudden spike in caseloads, the response is often reactive. The typical cascade goes like this: emergency shelters fill up, kinship placements are fast-tracked (sometimes without full licensing), and foster homes are stretched beyond capacity. In extreme

tends to surface 8 to 12 months later, when families—already stretched thin—begin to falter under the weight of unmet needs. TANF, for example, provides critical cash assistance to families with low income. When eligibility tightens or funding shrinks, families may struggle to meet basic needs, leading to increased stress and, in some cases, neglect. SNAP cuts often result in food insecu rity, which is strongly linked to child neglect and poor health outcomes. And reductions in housing support can push families into homelessness, a known risk factor for child welfare involvement. Medicaid, too, plays a pivotal role. Research shows that Medicaid

Illustration by Chris Campbell

4

Policy & Practice Summer 2025