2015 Informs Annual Meeting

SC34

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015

SC35 35-Room 412, Marriott OR and Homeland Security: Social and Organizational Concerns Sponsor: Public Sector OR Sponsored Session Chair: Paul Kantor, Prof, Rutgers, 96 Frelinghuysen Dr, Piscataway, NJ, United States of America, paul.kantor@rutgers.edu 1 - Is Secure and Usable Smartphone Authentication Asking too Much? Janne Lindqvist, Rutgers, 96 Frelinghuysen Dr, Piscataway NJ, janne@winlab.rutgers.edu Smartphones are a convenience, but they present also considerable security and privacy risks. Using your smartphone gives access to snapshots of your whole life. In this talk, we will discuss smartphone user authentication issues and solutions. This talk is based on work published in IEEE Computer May 2015, (w/ Dr. Alexander De Luca), IEEE Pervasive Computing Jan/Mar 2015 (w/ Gradeigh D. Clark), and other published works by Dr. Lindqvist’s group on usable and secure authentication. 2 - Vertical Data Integration for Homeland Security: The Moynihan Principle Paul Kantor, Prof, Rutgers, 96 Frelinghuysen Dr, Piscataway, NJ, United States of America, paul.kantor@rutgers.edu The disparate parts of DHS have complex legacy information systems. To achieve full potential decision makers at every level need access to the data, and they must have confidence that it is the same data that their subordinates and their superiors are seeing. While technically possible, this is a disruptive departure from the hierarchical and stovepiped systems that are in place now. We discuss some technical and cultural challenges that hinder the development of such a much- needed system. 3 - Fusing Disparate Threat Reports John Hollywood, Senior Operations Researcher, RAND Corporation, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA, 22202, United States of America, jshollywood@gmail.com We discuss a nonlinear programming approach to fusing disparate, including openly conflicting, intelligence reports about a potential threat. The method yields estimates of threat level probabilities that are as conservative (i.e., uncertain, in an information-theoretic sense) as possible given what has been reported about a subject. It may be implemented using off-the-shelf Microsoft Excel Solver, which is important for operations centers that typically lack high-end solvers. 4 - The Challenge of Maritime Cyber Security Fred Roberts, CCICADA, 96 Frelinghuysen Rd, Piscataway, NJ, United States of America, froberts@dimacs.rutgers.edu The vulnerabilities to cyber attacks of today’s marine transportation system have not been well studied. This paper explores vulnerabilities of shipboard systems, oil rigs, cargo, and port operations and explores some suggested remedies. SC36 36-Room 413, Marriott Threats to Life and Limb Sponsor: Public Sector OR Sponsored Session Chair: Arnold I Barnett, Professor, MIT, E62-568, MIT, Cambridge, MA, 02139, United States of America, abarnett@mit.edu 1 - Insights from Anomalies in the Age-crime Curves for Homicide Alfred Blumstein, University Professor, Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave., Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, United States of America, ab0q@andrew.cmu.edu The age-crime curve is the age-specific ratio of arrests to population [A(a)/N(a)] that rises quickly to a peak at about age 18 and then declines more slowly. This curve displayed a particularly anomalous pattern between 1985 and 1993, thereby suggesting some distinctive activity during that period. The insights by looking at features of those changes provided strong indications of the factors contributing to the homicide growth during that period.

4 - Two-stage Stochastic Programming for Adaptive Interdisciplinary Pain Management Gazi Iqbal, University of Texas Arlington, P.O. Box 19017, Arlington, TX, 76019, United States of America, gazimddaud.iqbal@mavs.uta.edu, Jay Rosenberger, Victoria Chen, Robert Gatchel, Na Wang This research uses a two-stage stochastic programming method to optimize personal adaptive treatment strategies to improve current and future pain outcomes. A piecewise linear approximation method is developed to approximate non-convex quadratic functions. Equivalent deterministic mixed integer linear programs are developed to optimize treatment strategies for patients. SC34 34-Room 411, Marriott Design and Analysis of Adaptive Health Interventions Sponsor: Health Applications Sponsored Session Chair: Diana Negoescu, Assistant Professor, University of Minnesota, 111 Church St. SE, Minneapolis, MN, United States of America, negoescu@umn.edu 1 - Optimal Timing of Drug Sensitivity Testing for Patients on 1st-line Tuberculosis Treatment in India Sze Suen, Stanford University, 117 Encina Commons, Stanford, CA, 94305, United States of America, ssuen@stanford.edu We seek to determine the optimal time to administer drug sensitivity testing (DST) for first-line tuberculosis treatment patients in India to improve health outcomes and reduce costs. Using a POMDP model, we find that India should revise the protocol to provide DST during the first month of treatment in areas of average or high MDR TB prevalence and transmission, and may wish to consider individually tailored DST regimens in low transmission, low MDR prevalence areas to reduce financial costs. 2 - Cost-effectiveness of Hiv Preexposure Prophylaxis for Injection Drug Users in the United States Cora Bernard, Stanford University, Department of Management Science and Eng, Huang Engineering Center, Stanford, CA, Recent CDC guidelines recommend HIV preexposure chemoprophylaxis (PrEP) for adults who are active injection drug users (IDUs) in the US. However, the potential population health benefits and costs of this policy remain unclear. We developed a dynamic HIV epidemic model to evaluate oral PrEP (Truvada) for IDUs in the US. We find that PrEP for IDUs can provide substantial health benefits for the entire US population, but at the current cost of Truvada is a very expensive intervention. 3 - Diagnostic Sequences for Evaluating Post-stroke Atrial Fibrillation: A Cost-effectiveness Analysis Sepehr Nemati, Postdoctoral Fellow, Ivey School of Business, University of Western Ontario, 1255 Western Road London, London, Canada, Sproon@ivey.uwo.ca, Lauren Cipriano, Luciano Sposato Patients with atrial fibrillation and a history of stroke are at higher risk of stroke. It has been shown that sequentially combining cardiac monitoring methods might detect atrial fibrillation in nearly a quarter of patients with stroke or transient ischemic attack. However, the cost-effectiveness of these strategies remains unknown. We propose a decision analytic model to evaluate the costs, benefits, and cost-effectiveness of various post-stroke atrial fibrillation diagnostic strategies. 4 - Analysis of Electronic Health Record Based Depression Trajectory and Monitoring Ying Lin, University of Washington, Box 352650, Seattle, WA, 98195-2650, United States of America, linyeliana.ie@gmail.com, Shuai Huang, Shan Liu Depression is a common, complex and dynamic mental disorder. We established a trajectory-based framework for depression diagnosis/prognosis adaptable to population heterogeneity using electronic health record data. We analyzed patterns in the depression trajectories of a treatment population and proactively probed new trajectories for monitoring treatment outcomes. A five-group trajectory pattern was found using clustering, recursive partitioning, and collaborative degradation model. 94305, United States of America, clb210@stanford.edu, Eran Bendavid, Margaret L. Brandeau, Keith Humphreys, Mark Holodniy, Christopher Weyant, Douglas K. Owens, Jeremy D. Goldhaber-fiebert

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