2015 Informs Annual Meeting

MC43

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015

MC41 41-Room 102A, CC Joint Session MSOM-Health/HAS/Analytics: Data- Driven Modeling in Healthcare III Sponsor: Manufacturing & Service Oper Mgmt/Healthcare Operations Sponsored Session Chair: Mehmet Ayvaci, Asst Professor, University of Texas-Dallas, School of Management, Richardson, TX, 75080, United States of America, mehmet.ayvaci@utdallas.edu 1 - Making the Case for Case Management Margret Bjarnadottir, Assistant Professor of Management Science and Statistics, Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, 4324 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD, 20742, United States of America, margret@rhsmith.umd.edu, David Anderson Most case management programs target current high-cost patients. However the real cost savings potential is including lower cost patients at high risk of future high costs. We demonstrate the potential of association rules for identification of these high value patients and derive a general upper bound methodology on classification performance. 2 - Managing Office Revisit Intervals and Patient Panel Sizes in Primary Care Hessam Bavafa, Assistant Professor, Wisconsin School of Business, Madison, WI, United States of America, hbavafa@bus.wisc.edu In recent years, the drive to contain health care costs in the US has increased scrutiny of the traditional mode of delivering primary care where a patient is treated by his primary care physician during a face-to-face visit. In particular, two approaches, the use of “e-visits” and greater reliance on non-physician providers, have been suggested as lower-cost alternatives to the traditional set-up. In this paper, we consider a patient panel and develop a new model of patient health dynamics. 3 - Outpatient-clinic Capacity Management when Continuity of Care Matters Yichuan Ding, UBC, 2053 Main Mall, Sauder School of Business, Vancouver, BC, V6T1Z2, Canada, daniel.ding@sauder.ubc.ca, Diwakar Gupta, Xiaoxu Tang We study how to manage capacity in an outpatient clinic with the goal of maximizing service volume as well as maintaining high level of continuity of care (COC). We consider a simple strategy that doctors may use to improve COC — book a follow-up appointment (FUA) for a patient before she leaves the clinic. In order to encourage the doctor to use this strategy, the current fee-for-service mechanism must be revised to compensate doctors for FUAs that are no show or late cancelled. 4 - The Impact of Health Information Exchanges on Emergency Department Length of Stay Jan Vlachy, PhD Student, Georgia Institute of Technology, 755 Ferst Drive, NW, Atlanta, GA, 30332, United States of America, vlachy@gatech.edu, Turgay Ayer, Mehmet Ayvaci, Zeynal Karaca Electronic exchange of health information (HIE) is expected to improve coordination in emergency departments (ED). We empirically study the impact of HIEs on ED length of stay (LOS) using a large longitudinal dataset comprising about 5.8 million visits to 63 EDs over three years. Overall, we find that HIE adoption is associated with substantial reductions in LOS, but this impact depends on various contextual and situational factors.

1 - Efficient Spatial Allocation of Epidemic Intervention Resources with a Focus on Ebola in West Africa Eike Nohdurft, Research Assistant, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management, Burgplatz 2, Vallendar, 56179, Germany, eike.nohdurft@whu.edu, Elisa Long, Stefan Spinler The recent Ebola outbreak has shown that containment of an infectious disease relies on deployment and allocation of intervention resources. A model reducing the number of infections through improved allocation is proposed. Allocation decisions are based on a spatial compartmental epidemic model with a novel factor dynamically incorporating behavioral change in the population. Our approach could avoid up to 23% of the infections. 2 - Information Aggregation and Classification under Anchoring Bias: Application to Breast Imaging Mehmet Eren Ahsen, Researcher, IBM Research, 1101 Route 134 Kitchawan RD #13-146C, Yorktown Heights, NY, 10598, United States of America, mahsen@us.ibm.com, Mehmet Ayvaci, Srinivasan Raghunathan We study optimal aggregation and subsequent classification for the case of two sources of information where the interpretation of the primary information (mammography) is biased by the secondary information (risk profile). We examine the relationship between bias, weights assigned, and the decision thresholds in the context of optimal utility or the optimal discriminative ability. 3 - Priority and Predictability Jillian A Berry Jaeker, Assistant Professor, Boston University, 595 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA, 02215, United States of America, jjaeker@bu.edu This study explores how patient admission characteristics (i.e. whether a patient is scheduled or emergent; medical or surgical) moderate the effects of high workload and demand. In particular, the probabilities of admission and discharge, by patient type are analyzed. The results of this study provide an estimation of the impact of predictability on patient flow. 4 - Decision Ambiguity and Conflicts of Interests in Interventional Cardiology Decision-Making Tinglong Dai, Assistant Professor, Johns Hopkins University, 100 International Dr, Baltimore, MD, 21202, United States of America, dai@jhu.edu, Chao-wei Hwang, Xiaofang Wang With the rapidly rising cost of health care, there is a renewed urgency for reducing inappropriate use of percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). In this work, we provide a quantitative analytical model of clinical and non-clinical factors influencing PCI decision-making processes. Our model helps inform policy-makers designing guidelines to optimize the use of PCI. MC43 43-Room 103A, CC Game Theoretic Models in Revenue Management II Sponsor: Revenue Management and Pricing Sponsored Session Chair: Santiago Balseiro, Assistant Professor, Duke University, 100 Fuqua Drive, Durham, NC, 27708, United States of America, srb43@duke.edu Co-Chair: Ozan Candogan, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business, Chicago, IL, United States of America, ozan.candogan@chicagobooth.edu 1 - Learn and Screen: A Strategic Approach to Collaborative Inventory Management Bharadwaj Kadiyala, PhD Candidate, The University of Texas at Dallas, 800 West Campbell Road, 3.218, Dallas, TX, 75080, United States of America, bharadwaj.kadiyala@utdallas.edu, Ozalp Ozer We propose a dynamic mechanism for a supplier who periodically replenishes inventory with partial knowledge of demand distribution. By combining the best of Bayesian updating and screening mechanism, we show that in addition to maximizing profit, inventory decisions also serve a strategic purpose in eliciting demand information from the buyer. 2 - Optimal Contracts for Intermediaries in Online Advertising Santiago Balseiro, Assistant Professor, Duke University, 100 Fuqua Drive, Durham, NC, 27708, United States of America, srb43@duke.edu, Ozan Candogan The prevalent method online advertisers employ to acquire impressions is to contract with an intermediary. We study the optimal contract offered by the intermediary when advertisers’ budgets and targeting criteria are private. We introduce a novel approach to tackle the resulting multi-dimensional dynamic mechanism design problem, and show that an intermediary can profitably provide bidding service to a budget-constrained advertiser and at the same time increase the overall market efficiency.

MC42 42-Room 102B, CC Joint Session MSOM-Health/HAS/Analytics: Healthcare Analytics Sponsor: Manufacturing & Service Oper Mgmt/Healthcare Operations Sponsored Session

Chair: Tinglong Dai, Assistant Professor, Johns Hopkins University, 100 International Dr, Baltimore, MD, 21202, United States of America, dai@jhu.edu Co-Chair: Song Hee Kim, Assistant Professor, Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States of America, songheek@marshall.usc.edu

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