2016 INFORMS Annual Meeting Program

SD54

INFORMS Nashville – 2016

SD55 Music Row 3- Omni Modeling and Simulation of Education as a Complex System Sponsored: Service Science Sponsored Session

4 - How Cost Reduction And Change Of Technology Significantly Changed The Demand Of A Product. Case Story Based On Daily Demand Data From 2012-2016 Eric Bentzen, Copenhagen Business School, eb.om@cbs.dk Senior leadership can influence a direct report through incentives and communication. Financial incentives are credible and precisely specified, but offer limited flexibility, whereas communication is flexible, but lacks precision and must be deemed credible to affect a direct report’s actions. We study senior leadership who seeks to add an initiative to their portfolio. Early on, its potential to create value is not well-understood, however, senior leadership eventually obtains knowledge on its potential which they may communicate to their direct report.

Chair: Maryam Alsadat Andalib, PhD Student, Virginia Tech, 1185 Perry Street, 536F Whittemore Hall, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, United States, maryam7@vt.edu 1 - Cross-sectional Surveys: Inferring Total Time In State Using Only Elapsed Time-to-date Richard C Larson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, rclarson@mit.edu We survey populations whose members are in a temporary state, asking time already spent in the temporary state. Leveraging longevity bias, we derive distributions of total time spent in the state for: random & fixed times of surveying, random & fixed times of entering the state, and sampling only those who have already spent some minimal specified time in the state. 2 - Exploring The United States Behavioral And Social Science Research (BSSR) Workforce Through Dynamic Modeling Julie Maurer, Ohio State University, maurer.99@osu.edu The behavioral and social sciences research (BSSR) workforce in the United States is a segment of the STEM researcher workforce that is of growing concern. There is considerable interest in the health of the BSSR workforce as demonstrated by a recent Executive Order (EO 13707, 2015) recognizing the value of such research in informing effective policy creation. Given its complexity and the challenges of understanding the heterogeneity of its scientists, a hybrid model (combining system dynamics and agent based approaches) is developed in this study to explore and better understand the complex dynamics of the supply and demand in the BSSR workforce and the effects of various policy interventions. 3 - Different Modes Of Scientific Progress In HIV/AIDS Arash Baghaei Lakeh, Virginia Tech, arashb@vt.edu Navid Ghaffarzadegan There is a variation in research focus of scientific communities from different countries on various aspects of HIV/AIDS disease. In this research, we are employing topic finding methods to distinguish different trends of HIV/AIDS research over the past two decades. Our data includes the abstracts of more than 200,000 papers published over this period on HIV/AIDS. We then show differences of focus on HIV research in different countries and investigate the underlying reasons for such variation. 4 - Modeling And Analysis Of The Leaking Pipeline: Diversity In The United States Higher Education Maryam Alsadat Andalib, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States, maryam7@vt.edu, Navid Ghaffarzadegan Moving towards an equitable education system provides underrepresented groups with equal educational and economic opportunities. Many studies have attempted to identify the important causes of the existing gender and ethnicity gaps in higher education and the policy leverages with the goal of increasing equity. But the body of research investigating the effectiveness of different policy leverages is methodologically narrow. In this research, we specifically aim at identifying the important causes of disparities in the US higher education, and introduce policies to improve education equity as well as long term achievements of underrepresented minorities through a system dynamics approach. SD56 Music Row 4- Omni Health & IT Sponsored: EBusiness Sponsored Session Chair: Laura Brandimarte, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States, lbrandimarte@email.arizona.edu 1 - There’s An App For That: Addressing The Handoff Problem In Healthcare Using Mobile Idris Adjerid, Notre Dame University, iadjerid@nd.edu Corey M Angst, Ralph Gross Healthcare and mobile technologies seem like a natural union with the potential for considerable value to providers and patients. With this in mind, we study a novel mobile application designed to address the handoff problem between the Emergency Department and inpatient units. Leveraging data on more than 145,000 Emergency Department visit over 4.5 years alongside detailed logs of app usage, we find that use of the app reduced patient length of stays in the ED by 4- 6%, effectively eliminating the additional time that an admitted patient spends in the ED.

SD54 Music Row 2- Omni Simulation of Healthcare Service Systems Sponsored: Service Science Sponsored Session

Chair: Wai Kin Chan, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 110 8th St., CII 5015, ISE Dept., RPI, Troy, NY, 12180, United States, chanw@rpi.edu 1 - Optimizing Hospital Service Levels Via Resource Allocation

Weiwei Chen, Assistant Professor, Rutgers University, 1 Washington Park, Newark, NJ, 07901, United States, wchen@business.rutgers.edu, Siyang Gao, Hainan Guo

This talk introduces a resource allocation problem typically encountered in hospitals. Service levels in a hospital will vary as the resources are allocated differently. These performance measures can be evaluated via simulation. We aim to find the optimal allocation that maximizes one service level while satisfying the other service level requirements. Such an optimization is subject to random noises in simulation and the limit on computing budget to run simulation. To this end, we formulate the problem as a simulation optimization problem, and derive Susan M Sanchez, Professor, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, 93950, United States, ssanchez@nps.edu, Paul J. Sanchez We explore the behavior of a new stochastic model of infectious disease propagation. The model tracks individual outcomes, but without creating connectivity graphs for all members of the population. Accordingly, it is readily scalable to large populations, while preserving the impact of variability during the critical early stages of an outbreak. Initial explorations show behaviors similar to the observed course of historical outbreaks: while many outbreaks fizzle out quickly, some flare into more widespread epidemics. Such results may better inform decision makers about risk. 3 - Association Between Staff Behavior And Patient Experience Of Care In Acute-care Hospitals This research proposes a new framework to assess the performance of hospitals across multiple domains of patients’ experiences. We examine whether key systemic characteristics of hospitals are associated with a better experience for patients. In particular, we investigated the effects of nurses and hospitalists activities on patients’ ratings of their care. A case study is presented that considers data from the intensive care units from multiple hospitals in Central Texas. 4 - Simulating The Size Distribution Of Hospital Service Systems Wai Kin Chan, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, chanw@rpi.edu, Baojun Gao, Nancy Deng This talk introduces an agent-based simulation model for simulating the growth process of a hospital service system. In this model, hospitals grow or reduce their size to react to (and compete for) patient demand. Patients, as another type of agents in the model, select a hospital to visit based on multiple factors. The objective of the agent-based model is to understand what factors influence the growth of hospitals in a way that the hospital size distribution converges to the size distribution consistent with the actual size distribution observed in a real hospital size dataset. Eduardo Perez, Assistant Professor, Texas State University, San Marcos, TX, United States, eduardopr@txstate.edu David P. Dzubay, Anthony Stahl the corresponding optimal computing budget allocation policy. 2 - Simulation Of Infectious Disease Propagation

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