2016 INFORMS Annual Meeting Program

MC63

INFORMS Nashville – 2016

2 - Modeling Multimodal Network Equilibrium For Unregulated Intercity Travel: An Equilibrium Problem With Equilibrium Constraints Approach Bo Zou, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States, bzou@uic.edu, Mohamadhossein Noruzoliaee, Lili Du This paper proposes a new approach to modeling network competition for multimodal intercity transportation. We view the interactions of transportation operators and travelers as a Multi-Leader-Multi-Follower game, which is modeled as an Equilibrium Problem with Equilibrium Constraints characterized by a series of transportation operators’ profit maximization problems. To solve the EPEC, we propose an algorithm that combines the Gauss-Seidel diagonalization method and the relaxation method. The validity of the EPEC model and the algorithm is demonstrated by applying them to a small network as well as a large network representing the US Midwest. 3 - Costs And Benefits Of ‘Open Skies’ In The East African Community (EAC) Megersa Abate, Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, megersa.abate@vti.se This paper investigates the economic effects of open skies in the East African Community (EAC) member countries. We find two important results. Firstly, fare levels are lower and departure frequencies are higher for countries with the most liberal air services agreements (ASA). Secondly, our welfare estimate shows that liberal ASAs have had significant economic impact in the order of $400 gain per passenger. The paper also makes normative analysis of the role of liberal policies on the long-term supply side responses in the EAC’s air transport market with respect to airline output, market structure, fares and the position of national airlines. 4 - The Impacts Of Merging And Acquisition On Route Entry Behavior: An Empirical Test Of The Contingency Framework In The US Domestic Airline Industry Li Zou, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, zoul@erau.edu, Janani Thiagarajan This paper examines the impacts on route structure development of the merger and acquisition (M&A) within the airline industry. Several contingent factors considered include the timing of the M&A in the economic cycle, the financial strength of the merging airlines, and their inclination toward merger activities, and similarity in terms of cost structure, operation scale, market strategy, and network structure. The estimation of the model is based on data drawn from the US domestic airline industry over the 1993-2011 period. A total of 14 airline mergers are covered in the analysis using data collected from Form 41, DB1B Market Data, T100 Domestic Segment Data, and other supplemental sources. MC63 Cumberland 5- Omni Robust Planning in Air Transportation Systems Sponsored: Aviation Applications Sponsored Session Chair: Adan Vela, Technical Staff, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, 244 Wood Street, Lexington, MA, 02420-9108, United States, adan.vela@ll.mit.edu Co-Chair: James Jones, Technical Staff, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, 244 Wood St., Arlington, MA, 02420, United States, James.Jones@ll.mit.edu 1 - Inferring The State Of The Air Transportation System Using Mobile Phone Data Eric Feron, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States, feron@gatech.edu, Aude Marzuoli, Emmanuel Boidot, Helene Piquet The Air Transportation system is becoming increasingly congested, leading to perturbations that propagate through the entire airspace, disproportionately impacting passengers. Most performance metrics in aviation are flight-centric, simply because passenger data belongs to airlines. Yet, using anonymized mobile phone location data, we can analyze passenger flow movements between airports, under nominal and degraded conditions. Once passengers are identified amongst mobile phone users, a matrix representing passenger flow movements between airports is extracted. We study the impact of a bad weather event on passenger flow movements, connections and wait times at airports.

decision-making. A mixed Logit model with two latent classes, myopic and looking-ahead route choice, is specified and estimated. Factors influencing looking-ahead behaviors such as information bias, experience, network complexity, and cognitive load are studied. 4 - The Initial Condition Problem With Complete History Dependency In Learning Models For Travel Choice Yue Tang, UMass Amherst, yuet@umass.edu Missing initial observations in longitudinal data can lead to inconsistent parameter estimates in learning models for travel choice due to the complete history dependency of choices of such models. This study proposes the maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) and multiple imputation (MI) methods to address this problem, and examines their efficacy and efficiency using an instance-based learning (IBL) model. Monte Carlo simulations with synthetic data are carried out to verify that the true parameter values are retrieved. An experimental dataset of repeated binary route choice is used to illustrate the empirical applicability of the methods. MC61 Cumberland 3- Omni Rail Safety and Risk Sponsored: Railway Applications Sponsored Session Chair: Xiang Liu, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ, United States, xiang.liu@rutgers.edu 1 - Analysis Of Railroad Accident Investigation Reports Using Railroad accident investigation reports from the National Transportation Safety Board in the United States and the Transportation Safety Board of Canada were analyzed using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and k-means clustering. The analysis suggests that recurring accident themes are track defects, wheel defects, grade crossing accidents, signaling issues, train crew fatigue and switching accidents. The Canadian analysis additionally highlighted accidents related to bridges and track drainage. The LDA analysis of the accident reports will also be contrasted with the results from an LDA analysis of the text fields of the FRA Railroad Equipment Accident database. 2 - Statistical Modeling Of Freight Train Accident Estimation Zhao Wang, University of Illinois at Urbana - Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States, zwang144@illinois.edu Accurate train accident rate estimation is critical in railway safety and risk management. In current methodology, the accident rate estimation methodology is based on a single exposure variable and could be improved. Utilizing statistical distribution modeling methods, a new train rate predictive model is build that accounts for more complex factors. 3 - Simulation-based Risk Analysis Model For Optimizing Rail Flaw Inspection Frequency Xiang Liu, Rutgers University, xiang.liu@rutgers.edu A simulation based risk analysis model is developed to quantify broken rail caused derailment risk on U.S. freight railroads. The model can be used to determine optimal inspection and maintenance scheduling. MC62 Cumberland 4- Omni Market Structure, Competition and Constraints in the Airline Industry Sponsored: Aviation Applications Sponsored Session Chair: Martin E Dresner, University of Maryland-College Park, R H Smith School of Business, College Park, MD, 20742, United States, mdresner@rhsmith.umd.edu 1 - Excess Inventory As A Market Entry Deterrence Mechanism: Probabilistic Topic Models And K-means Clustering Trefor Williams, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, tpw@rci.rutgers.edu, John Betak Inventory may have strategic value because it is necessary for production and consumer satisfaction that are crucial for firms to achieve competitive advantage. In service industries, inventory is often a result of extra capacity, which play a critical role in customer service. In this research, we examine the strategic role of inventory beyond cost efficiency and customer service, using data on the domestic airline industry in the United States. We find that extra inventory discourage market entry on major routes and the intensity of market competition strengthens the relationship between inventory and market entry. Evidence From The Us Airline Markets Chen Zhou, University of South Carolina, chen.zhou@moore.sc.edu

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