2016 INFORMS Annual Meeting Program

TB11

INFORMS Nashville – 2016

4 - Division Of Labor: Managing A Portfolio Of Self-scheduling Workers Kaitlin Daniels, Assistant Professor, Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, United States, k.daniels@wustl.edu Self-scheduling workers value their ability to decide for themselves how much they work. However, the flexibility of self-scheduling creates costly uncertainty in the service capacity of a firm coordinating a network of self-scheduling workers. We study a system of heterogeneous workers who decide to work in response to incentives offered by a firm. The firm balances the cost of convincing some workers to work reliably with the benefit of reducing capacity uncertainty. We study how the mix of reliable and “flexible” workers changes as workers make costly demands of the firm (e.g. expense reimbursement, overtime pay, minimum wages), like those made by Uber drivers in recent lawsuits.

The import source countries for LNG are decided by minimizing both risks under constraint of transportation cost. 2 - A Simulation Model For Comparing The Robustness Of Alternative Liquefied Natural Gas Annual Delivery Programs Fatih Mutlu, Qatar University, fatihmutlu@qu.edu.qa Annual delivery program (ADP) is an integrated production, inventory, and delivery plan prepared by liquefied natural gas (LNG) suppliers to fulfill their contractual requirements. Traditionally, ADPs are prepared with the aim of minimizing the operational and contractual penalty coss. However, the implementation of an ADP is subject to many random disturbances, e.g., travel time delays. We develop a discrete-event based systems simulation model to simulate the implementation of an ADP by incorporating travel times uncertainty. Our model includes several contingency plans in case of delays. We compare the robustness of alternative ADPs using the simulation model. 3 - The North American Natural Gas Model: Analysis Of Long Term Natural Gas Exhaustion Sauleh Ahmad Siddiqui, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 N Charles Street, Baltimore, MD, 21218, United States, siddiqui@jhu.edu, Felipe A Feijoo The U.S. shale boom and new power plant regulations recently announced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency have stimulated substantial academic debate and numerical simulation exercises to understand the future role of natural gas in North America. Furthermore, the U.S. is expected to become a significant net exporter of natural gas over the next years. We use the North American Natural Gas Model (NANGAM) to better understand the new developments in infrastructure needed in North America to address increasing global demand. An analysis of resources being exhausted due to increased exports is also performed. TB11 104A-MCC Optimization in Network Reliability, Security, and Interdiction Sponsored: Optimization, Network Optimization Sponsored Session Chair: Yongjia Song, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, United States, ysong3@vcu.edu 1 - Multi-layered Interdependent Network Flow Problem Negin Enayaty, University of Arkansas, 4207 Bell Engineering Center, Fayetteville, AR, 72701, United States, nenayaty@email.uark.edu, Kelly Sullivan, Sarah G Nurre, Matthew Jd Robbins, Brian J Lunday We propose a generalization of the minimum cost multi-commodity flow problem in which the flow of each commodity is dependent on the flow of other commodities. We present computational results for an interdependent infrastructure data set and analyze the cost of layer interdependence in this problem. We develop model reduction strategies and investigate their effect on reducing computation times. 2 - Vulnerability Analysis Of Interdependent Networks Via Integer Programming Approaches Shanshan Hou, The University of Arizona, shanshanh@email.arizona.edu Due to the mutual support from the other one, the interdependent network shows increasing vulnerability to failures. In this talk, we proposed integer programming formulations to identify the most vulnerable components in the network, and also the solution approaches. To validate and test the model and algorithm, we perform the numerical experiments on power grid and its supporting communication control network. The potential application of this research is to redesign or defense many networks, especially the infrastructure networks. 3 - Stochastic Network Interdiction With Incomplete Preference Babak Saleck Pay, Virginia Commonwealth University, saleckpayb@mymail.vcu.edu We study two different cases of the stochastic shortest path interdiction problem with incomplete preferences. In the first case, the defender makes an interdiction decision, random network costs are realized, and then the attacker chooses his path. In the second case, the decisions of both players are made before the realization of randomness. We consider the situation where the underlying utility functions of the decision makers are ambiguous. We use a minimax formulation for the defender to minimize the attacker’s worst-case utility. We present numerical results based on randomly generated instances to show the performance of the models.

TB09 103B-MCC Information and Market Structure Sponsored: Applied Probability Sponsored Session

Chair: Yash Kanoria, ykanoria@columbia.edu 1 - Designing Information Disclosure Policies Kostas Bimpikis, Stanford, Stanford, CA, United States, kostasb@stanford.edu, Mohamed Mostagir Participants race towards completing a project and learn about its feasibility from their own efforts and their competitors’ gradual progress. Information about the status of competition can alleviate some of the uncertainty inherent in the contest, but it can also adversely affect effort provision from the laggards. This paper explores the problem of designing the information disclosure policy of a contest in a dynamic framework and provides a number of guidelines for maximizing the designer’s expected payoff. 2 - Shared Information Sources In Exchanges Mariann Ollar, University of Pennsylvania, omariann@gmail.com In financial and commodity exchanges, shared information sources, such as common forecasting methodologies or targeted advertisement, induce common biases in forecast errors. I show here in a linear normal model, that shared information sources qualitatively affect information aggregation and trade stability. First, they hinder perfect aggregation of information even on large markets with fundamental values and they necessitate learning from price even with independent trader values, since price is then informative about the common bias. Importantly, source restrictions can resolve market collapse, especially in exchanges with strong common values. 3 - Stable Matchings Are Easy To Find Yash Kanoria, Columbia Business School, ykanoria@columbia.edu, Itai Ashlagi, Mark Braverman, Peng Shi Matching markets include dating markets, school/college admissions, and labor markets. We analyze two-sided markets with tiers and study how much search effort is needed to find a stable matching. We find a “small” amount of search effort suffices, if each agent reaches out to his most desirable potential matches among those who have slightly less market power than his own. Interestingly, agents should wait for dream matches to reach out to them. TB10 103C-MCC Natural Gas Markets Sponsored: Energy, Natural Res & the Environment, Energy II Other Sponsored Session Chair: Felipe A Feijoo, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD, 21218, United States, ffeijoo@jhu.edu Co-Chair: Sauleh Ahmad Siddiqui, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 N. Charles St., Latrobe Hall 205, Baltimore, MD, 21218, United States, siddiqui@jhu.edu 1 - Evaluating Risks Of Maritime Transportation And Countries Of Import Source For LNG Ayumi Sekimori, Chuo University, Tokyo, Japan, a11.eceh@g.chuo-u.ac.jp, Shigeki Toriumi, Ryuta Takashima The use of natural gas has increased due to the influence of Fukushima accident. Thus it becomes more important to choose source countries for LNG import. In this work we analyze an import policy for LNG taking into account risks of maritime transportation and countries of import source. Especially the transportation risk includes maritime accidents and a dependence on chokepoints.

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