2016 INFORMS Annual Meeting Program

SA44

INFORMS Nashville – 2016

2 - Tradespace Tools For Engineering Resilient Systems Valerie B. Sitterle, Senior Research Engineer,

3 - Models And Tools To Support Decision Making On Multiple, Future, As-yet Unclear Management Issues Karen Jenni, US Geological Survey, kjenni@usgs.gov The USGS is developing a set of approaches and tools for conducting multi- resource analyses. These tools are intended to support decision making on a variety of future issues related to landscape-scale resource management. The tools can be used to consider multiple natural resources and sources of change and to address the relationships among resources and the social and economic impacts of resource change over time. We will discuss some of the unique challenges in scoping, defining, and building such models, focusing on the benefits a decision analysis approach brings even to problems without a clearly defined issue or specifically identified decision-makers. 4 - Casting Endangered Species Recovery As A Budget Allocation Problem Michael C Runge, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Laurel, MD, 20708, United States, mrunge@usgs.gov, Leah R. Gerber, Jeff Newman, Lynn A. Maguire, Richard F. Maloney, Deborah T. Crouse The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) is charged with managing recovery programs for species listed under the Endangered Species Act. At an agency level, this can be seen as the allocation of scarce resources to a portfolio of individual recovery efforts, taking into account the potential synergies among programs, as well as the opportunity to motivate additional funding from external partners. We are working with FWS to frame such decisions, using combinatorial optimization to explore solutions. Initial results suggest recovery outcomes could be improved with strategic budget allocation. Further, this framework provides a way to clearly articulate the benefits of increased funding. SA45 209A-MCC Financial Network Structure and Systemic Risk Invited: Risk and Compliance Invited Session Chair: Rafael Mendoza, McCombs School of Business, University of Texas, Austin, TX, 78712, United States, rafael.mendoza- arriaga@mccombs.utexas.edu Co-Chair: John R Birge, University of Chicago, 5807 S Woodlawn Ave, Chicago, IL, 60637, United States, John.Birge@ChicagoBooth.edu 1 - Financial Network Structure And Systemic Risk John R Birge, University of Chicago, John.Birge@ChicagoBooth.edu This talk will present a tutorial on financial network structure and systemic risk, the impact of the structure on the propagation of shocks and the potential for failure cascades. The tutorial will describe basic models and their implications and an examination of the inclusion of endogenous decisions on inter-relationships.

Georgia Tech Research Institute, Atlanta, GA, United States, valerie.sitterle@gtri.gatech.edu, Santiago Balestrini-Robinson, Dane F. Freeman, James Arruda, Simon R. Goerger, Tommer R. Ender Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) is a U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) program focusing on effective, efficient development of complex engineered systems across their lifecycle and different future operational needs and mission contexts. This presentation will describe the ERS TRADESPACE toolset being collaboratively developed for the DoD Acquisitions community to support the end-to-end set of integrated processes necessary to specify stakeholder needs and create tradespaces for exploration in synergy with decision analysis methods. We will also discuss how traditional decision analysis may be a foundation from which to explore additional questions relevant to key decision makers. 3 - Decision Analysis In The Engineering Body Of Knowledge Gregory S Parnell, University of Arkansas, gparnell@uark.edu We review the definitions of decision analysis and list the decision analysis articles in the body of knowledge for the following professional societies: INFORMS, the Society for Decision Professionals, the Military Operations Research Society (MORS), The International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE), and the American Society for Engineering Management (ASEM). 4 - Evaluating Stakeholder Requirements To Assess Resiliency For Engineered Resilient Systems Christina Rinaudo, USACE Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), Vicksburg, MS, United States, Christina.H.Rinaudo@usace.army.mil, Randy K Buchanan Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) research focuses on identifying methods and incorporating processes to enable model-based systems engineering analysis early in the acquisition life cycle. ERS research efforts include defining, quantifying, and developing a methodology to analyze system resiliency. Previous research described an aspect of resilience as robustness and proposed a workflow to quantify robustness using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT). This presentation describes the application of the robustness workflow to evaluate design alternatives using the system requirements generated during the development of the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicle. SA44 208B-MCC Applications of Decision Analysis to Natural Resource Management Sponsored: Decision Analysis Sponsored Session Chair: Karen Jenni, US Geological Survey, DFC, MS 939, Denver, CO, 80225, United States, kjenni@usgs.gov Co-Chair: Michael Runge, US Geological Survey, Patuxant Wildlife Research Center, Laural, MD, 20708, United States, mrunge@usgs.gov 1 - Optimal Design Of Protection Zones For Wildlife. Julien Martin, US Geological Survey, julienmartin@usgs.gov The establishment of protection areas to reduce mortality risk of wildlife is a common management action, yet implementation of these zones can be contentious. We apply optimization approaches to determine optimal configuration of protection zones that meet management objectives under various costs and constraints scenarios. One key management objective is to minimize risk of deadly collisions. We apply encounter rate theory to quantify the relative risk of lethal collisions between marine mammals and watercraft. 2 - Managing A Long-term Tidal Estuary Restoration: An Adaptive Framework For Decisions Under Uncertainty And Risk David R Smith, Researcj Statistician, US Geological Survey, Leetown, WV, 25430, United States, drsmith@usgs.gov Jill Gannon, Mitchell J Eaton In collaboration with NPS, we developed a decision framework to help guide restoration of an ecologically degraded estuary, restricted from tidal influence for 100+ years. Decisions involve the timeframe under which restored tidal exchange will occur via modified water control structures, and implementation of secondary actions to address specific concerns. Decision complexity is magnified by multiple objectives, a long restoration horizon, high uncertainty about ecosystem response to hydrologic changes and low risk tolerance by numerous stakeholders. Although leaning is anticipated to occur rapidly, problem complexity limits the application of formal adaptive management principles.

SA46 209B-MCC Pricing and New Product Management Sponsored: Revenue Management & Pricing Sponsored Session Chair: Nur Sunar, UNC, Chapel Hill, NC, United States, nur_sunar@kenan-flagler.unc.edu

1 - Optimal Subscription Pricing For Free Delivery Services Chinmoy Mohapatra, PhD Student, The University of Texas at Austin, McCombs School of Business, Austin, TX, 78712, United States, chinmoym@utexas.edu, Anant Balakrishnan, Shankar Sundaresan We study the subscription pricing problem of a retailer that offers its consumers two delivery choices: a pay-per-delivery option and a subscription option with free delivery. The retailer balances the “loss” incurred in covering the shipping costs of subscribers against the increase in revenue from the “lift” in their purchase quantity. We develop a model based on a novel utility-based framework that captures consumer heterogeneity, both in terms of their utility and preference across different firms, characterize the retailer’s optimal subscription pricing policy, and develop interesting insights.

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