2016 INFORMS Annual Meeting Program

WC04

INFORMS Nashville – 2016

WA05 101E-MCC Forest Management II Sponsored: Energy, Natural Res & the Environment II Forestry Sponsored Session Chair: Peter Rauch, BOKU-Univ of Natural Resources & Life Sciences, Institute of Production and Logistics, Wien, 1180, Austria, Peter.rauch@boku.ac.at 1 - Quantifying The Conflict between Competing Forest Ecosystem The potential impact of climate change on the production of forest ecosystem services is well-documented. Much less understood is how the tradeoffs among these services would change. Would more conflicts arise? How would one measure such a conflict at the first place? We introduce a new method to quantify conflict as the ratio between the volume of n-dimensional objective space under the production possibilities frontier of a set of competing ecosystem services vs. the space defined by the ideal solution. We illustrate the method via use of real examples from management. 2 - A Replanning Model For Maximizing Woodland Caribou Habitat Alongside Timber Production David L Martell, University of Toronto, david.martell@utoronto.ca, Andrew B. Martin, Jonathan Leo William Ruppert, Eldon Gunn Woodland caribou in the boreal forest region of Canada tend to prefer older jack pine forest stands but such habitat needs can conflict with industrial fibre needs. We present a forest harvest scheduling model that meets timber harvest targets while maximizing a proxy for woodland caribou habitat, the configuration of preferred habitat on the landscape. We used our model to carry out a case study of the Trout Lake forest in northern Ontario, Canada, and found that our model creates about 10% more caribou habitat than an earlier heuristic procedure and 30% more than the current plan for the forest. 3 - Modeling The Spatial Interactions Of Timber Harvesting And Sitka Deer Habitat On The Tongass National Forest Services under Alternative Climate Scenarios Nicholas Kullman, University of Washington, Nick.Kullman@gmail.com, Sandor Toth We developed and implemented a spatially explicit timber harvest scheduling model to optimize the joint production of timber and deer habitat capability on management units of the Tongass NF. We found model solutions to be sensitive to variation in sea level snow depths, with notable effects on timber harvest schedules, deer habitat capacity, and the amount and location of old-growth remaining at the end of a forest planning horizon. We also discovered that a spatially scattered harvesting pattern helped create diversified forest compositions; which consequently could improve the overall deer forage production. 4 - How Does Climate Change Impact On Wood Supply Security? Peter Rauch, BOKU-Univ of Natural Resources & Life Sciences, Peter.rauch@boku.ac.at In order to assess climate change risks and their mid and long-term impacts on the bio-based industry a System Dynamics model of the Austrian wood supply was developed that includes a stochastic simulation of the main risk agents. The model examines future annual cut and evaluates wood supply security considering climate change impacts. Simulation results provide insights on probabilistic future wood supply security and reveal a contra-intuitive system effect for the climate change scenario. WA06 102A-MCC Text Mining I Sponsored: Data Mining Sponsored Session Chair: Majeed Simaan, RPI, 231 Congress Street, Troy, NY, 12180, United States, simaam@rpi.edu 1 - Text Mining Based Prediction Model For Incident Occurrences In Steel Plant Sobhan Sarkar, Research Scholar, IIT, IIT kharagpur, kharagpur, 721302, India, sobhan.sarkar@gmail.com, Vishal Lakha, Irshad Ansari, Jhareswar Maiti The aim of this study is to provide the predictive solution using text mining and classification algorithms. Data on accident occurrences for a period of four years from a steel industry was collected. The outputs of text mining have been fed into four binary classification algorithms (SVM, k-NN, Random Forest, Maximum Entropy) which were tested further for evaluation of the best fit model to predict Yu Wei, Colorado State University, yu.wei@colostate.edu, Michael Bevers, Curt Flather, Greg Hayward, Ben Case, Mary Friberg, Thomas Hanley

4 - Representing Uncertainty With Convex Model Databases Anushka Chandrababu, Research Scholar, International Institute of Information Technology, Bangalore, 26/C, Electronic City, Bangalore, India, anushka.babu@iiitb.org, Srinivasa Prasanna We present Convex Model Databases for storing and querying uncertain data sets. The database stores convex models which could be a collection of polytopes, ellipsoids etc. We will discuss methods to represent them, generate them from uncertain or big-data applications, associated relational algebra and results from new optimized queries based on I-structures, a generalization of database indices. We will also show case real world applications of this database representing uncertain or big data. 5 - A Recommender Systems Approach For Predicting Utility Of Various Mobile Services Abhay Kumar Bhadani, Indian Institute of Technology-Delhi,

Ground Floor office, New Delhi, 110016, India, abhaybhadani@gmail.com, Ravi Shankar, Vijay Rao

Modeling human behavior and predicting their preferences is of interest to many organizations. The ability of predict one’s preference in mobile ser- vices arena pertains high business value for the service providers. This paper attempts to model user’s preference using collaborative filtering based recommender system.

WA04 101D-MCC

Optimization in converter-based power systems Sponsored: Energy, Natural Res & the Environment, Energy I Electricity Sponsored Session Chair: Joshua Adam Taylor, University of Toronto, 10 King’s College Road, SF 1021C, Toronto, ON, M5S 3G4, Canada, taylor.a.josh@gmail.com 1 - Designing Microgrid Dynamics Baosen Zhang, University of Washington, zhangbao@uw.edu Power electronics interfaces allows us to design dynamical behaviors in microgrids. As an important example, the moment of inertia and damping coefficients can be designed to optimize system performance. In this talk, we will consider the optimal design problem of choosing these coefficients, subject to the physical constraints of the power electronics. We show how to cast this problem as an eigenvalue problem, which can then be approximated via a convex program. We also investigate the role of network topology. 2 - Frequency Control In Microgrids: Distributed Implementation And Intrusion Detection High penetration of distributed generation in microgrids has raised the frequency stability issue. Secondary control can resolve it by dispatching active power resources, which may be vulnerable to malicious attacks on the communication infrastructure. A distributed secondary control for distributed energy resources is developed in this paper along with the cyber-security considerations. The control scheme can achieve the goal of power sharing while restoring frequency in a distributed fashion. Attack detection and localization strategies are developed using local measurements and neighbor information. 3 - Optimizing The Interplay Between The Micro And Macro Grids: From Challenges To Perspectives Luckny Zephyr, Postdoctoral Associate, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, United States, lz395@cornell.edu, C. Lindsay Anderson Efficient management of power networks is a difficult task. This is exacerbated by the integration of renewables. Finding good operating policies depends upon two complementary tasks (i) finding an acceptable representation for the underlying stochastic process, and (ii) given an approximation, finding an optimal operating policy for the power network. The interface between these two steps is a challenge. We assert that a significant proportion of the flexible loads are located in the distribution system, we then want to develop a comprehensive stochastic co-optimization scheme for the interplay between the generation and transmission system, and the distribution-system-as-micro grid. 4 - Optimizing Power Electronic Converters Using Geometric Programming Andrija Stupar, University of Toronto, andrija@stupar.com We formulate the design of power electronic converters as a geometric program (GP). The GP formulation allows the use of existing convex optimization solvers and techniques which greatly speeds up the optimization process. Some components are naturally modeled as posynomials, and those that are not can be accurately approximated via empirical fitting. The GP formulation allows a quick generation of Pareto curves and surfaces over a number of operating points and component combinations for a converter. This is illustrated using an example where loss-volume Pareto-optimal solutions for different multi-level converter topologies are compared. Lin-Yu Lu, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States, lyl@illinois.edu, Hao Zhu

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