2015 Informs Annual Meeting

MC62

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015

MC63 63-Room 112B, CC

4 - The Trade-off Between Market Efficiency and Compensation Payments in Unit Commitment Problems Daniel Huppmann, Postdoctoral Fellow, Johns Hopkins University, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), 3400 N. Charles St., Baltimore, MD, 21218, United States of America, dh@dergelbesalon.at, Sauleh Siddiqui We apply an exact solution method for binary equilibrium problems to a large- scale power market unit commitment problem based on a realistic dataset. We illustrate the trade-off between efficient market operations (least-cost dispatch) against the budget required for compensation payments to guarantee incentive- compatibility of all market participants. The results are contrasted with prices and dispatch according to the current practice in market operation. MC62 62-Room 112A, CC Operations Management with Carbon Restrictions Environmental Concerns Sponsor: ENRE – Environment I – Environment and Sustainability Sponsored Session Chair: Ulku Gurler, Professor, Ihsan Dogramaci Bilkent University, Industrial Engineering Department, Ankara, 06800, Turkey, ulku@bilkent.edu.tr Co-Chair: Emre Berk, Bilkent University, Management Faculty, 06800 Bilkent, Ankara, Turkey, eberk@bilkent.edu.tr 1 - Supply Chain Coordination with Resource Constraints: Analysis of Buyback and Target Rebate Contracts A. Serdar Simsek, Cornell ORIE, 282 Rhodes Hall, Ithaca, NY, 14853, United States of America, as2899@cornell.edu, Ulku Gurler, Malek Ebadi We analyze certain supply chain contracts under resource constraints such as carbon emission or cash constraints. We consider a setting where both the manufacturer and the retailer can trade with their available resources in the marketplace after they decide the order quantities and analyze the range of buyback and target rebate contract parameters that would achieve coordination and the resulting profit share structure. We also provide extensive numerical analysis to study some practical cases. 2 - Multiple Input Newsvendor Ploblem with Environment Concious Customers Ulku Gurler, Professor, Ihsan Dogramaci Bilkent University, Industrial Engineering Department, Ankara, 06800, Turkey, ulku@bilkent.edu.tr, Nazli Sonmez In this work the inventory replenishment problem of a newsvendor with multiple inputs is considered when the customers have environmental concerns. In particular, it is assumed that the carbon emission of the final product is a function of the carbon emissions of the inputs and the customer demand decreases with the product’s carbon emissions. The optimal order quantity of the newsvendor is investigated and some numerical results are provided. 3 - Technology Selection for Production Firms in a Carbon Economy Emre Berk, Bilkent University, Management Faculty, 06800 Bilkent, Ankara, Turkey, eberk@bilkent.edu.tr, Onurcan Ayas In this study, we address public policy structures and their implications on technology selection decisions for product design and pollution abatement in the presence of carbon emission restrictions and carbon markets. We consider a number of demand/utility functions to capture the firm behavior. We model technology primarily as a knowledge-based input in a multi-input setting. We provide some analytical results on technology enhancement conditions and illustrative numerical examples. 4 - How to use Data Analytics for Smarter Energy Management

Advanced Manufacturing II Sponsor: Advanced Manufacturing Invited Session Chair: Binil Starly, Associate Professor, North Carolina State University, 406 Daniels Hall, Raleigh NC 27607, United States of America, bstarly@ncsu.edu 1 - Out-of-plane Geometric Error Prediction for Additive Manufacturing Qiang Huang,Associate Professor, University of Southern California, GER 240, USC, Los Angeles CA, United States of America, qiang.huang@usc.edu, Yuan Jin We aim to establish a methodology to predict the out-of-plane geometric error prediction in additive manufacturing processes. We provide a novel spatial deviation formulation in which both in-plane and out-of-plane errors are placed under a consistent mathematical framework. The derived predictive model for out-of-plane errors is validated through experimentation using a stereolithography process. 2 - Engineering of Surface Microstructure using Severe Plastic Deformation in Machining Sepideh Abolghasem,Postdoctoral Researcher, Universidad de los Andes, Carrera 1 Este # 19 A - 40, Bogota, Colombia, sea40@pitt.edu, Raha Akhavan-Tabatabaei, Meenakshisundar Ravi Shankar, Roberto Zarama Urdaneta Severe Plastic Deformation leads to surface microstructures with enhanced properties, which is unfortunately limited by poorly elucidated process- parameters linkages. While research in manufacturing has been traditionally dedicated to phenomenological models, here the effort is to bridge these gaps through understanding the underlying physics of materials and application of statistical techniques. This will provide a powerful tool for microstructure prediction, control, and optimization. 3 - Cellular Biomanufacturing: Expansion of Stem Cells in Rotating Wheel Bioreactors Binil Starly,Associate Professor, North Carolina State University, 406 Daniels Hall, Raleigh NC 27607, United States of America, bstarly@ncsu.edu Stem cells are critical components of regenerative medicine therapy. However, the therapy will require millions to billions of therapeutic stem cells. To address the need, we have recently cultured stem cells in 3D microgels and use them as a vehicle for cell expansion within a low shear stress rotating wheel type bioreactor within a 500ml volumetric setting. This study specifically highlights the cell encapsulation, harvesting and operation of microbeads within a dynamic bioreactor environment. MC64 64-Room 113A, CC Behavioral Decision Analysis Sponsor: Decision Analysis Sponsored Session Chair: Johannes Siebert, University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, D-95440, Germany, Johannes.Siebert@uni-bayreuth.de 1 - Bayes and Prejudice Detlof Von Winterfeldt, Professor, University of Southern California, Viterbi School of Engineering, Industrial and Systems Engineering, Los Angeles, CA, 90089, United States of America, winterfe@usc.edu When judging probabilities, people ignore statistical base rates. For example, when judging the likelihood of fatal pitbull attacks, they think of dramatic examples, ignoring the fact that fatal dog attacks are very rare, by pitbulls or other breeds. Ignoring base rates explains prejudice against minorities among dogs and humans. 2 - Debiasing Overconfidence Valentina Ferretti, Politecnico of Torino, Corso Castelfidardo 30/A, Torino, Italy, valentina.ferretti@polito.it, Sule Guney, Gilberto Montibeller, Detlof Von Winterfeldt Overconfidence is a persistent and difficult to correct bias in decision and risk analysis. We conducted an experiment to test the effectiveness of several best practices to reduce this bias. The results suggest that changing the stimulus- response mode from the fixed probability (fractile) method to a fixed value method is effective

Ozge Islegen, Assistant Professor, Northwestern University, Kellogg School of Management, 2001 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL, 60208, United States of America, o-islegen@kellogg.northwestern.edu

The electricity industry has recently enjoyed the influx of “big data”. Through smart grid technologies, many firms now have access to the consumption behavior of their customers in unprecedented detail. This talk demonstrates how firms use this data to design effective demand side management programs to change the consumption behavior of their customers.

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