2015 Informs Annual Meeting

MC66

INFORMS Philadelphia – 2015

3 - Stimulating the Creation of More and Better Alternatives using Objectives Ralph L. Keeney, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, 101 Lombard Street, #704W, San Francisco, CA, 94111, United States of America, KeeneyR@aol.com, Johannes Siebert The quality of alternatives considered, perhaps more than the quality of the decisions made, influences the desirability of the subsequent consequences. Several experiments investigated the implications of different procedures to create alternatives. From the results, we developed guidelines to effectively create better Johannes Siebert, University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, D-95440, Germany, Johannes.Siebert@uni-bayreuth.de, Reinhard Kunz We use the proactive decision-making (PDM) scale before and after an online- course on decision-making to prove its positive impact on its participants. In line with our hypotheses, the four proactive cognitive skills systematic identification of objectives, systematic search for information, systematic identification of alternatives, and using a ‘decision radar’ improved significantly while the two proactive personality traits showing initiative and striving for improvement remain stable. MC65 65-Room 113B, CC Joint Session DAS/MAS:Game Theory, Decision Analysis, and Homeland Security, Part A Sponsor: Decision Analysis Sponsored Session Chair: Jun Zhuang, University at Buffalo, SUNY, 317 Bell Hall, Buffalo, NY, 14221, United States of America, jzhuang@buffalo.edu 1 - Deterence and Risk Preferences in A Sequential Attacker- defender Game with Continuous Defense Effort Vineet Madasseri Payyappall, PhD Student, University at Buffalo, 305 Winspear Avenue (Upper), Buffalo, NY, 14215, United States of America, vineetma@buffalo.edu, Jun Zhuang, Victor Richmond Jose Most attacker-defender games consider players as risk-neutral, whereas in reality, attackers and defenders may be risk-seeking or risk-averse. We study the impact of player’s risk preferences on their equilibrium behavior and their impact on the notion of deterrence. We present analytic results, numerical illustration, and discussion which provide insights that could be used by policy analysts and decision makers involved in investment decisions in security and safety. 2 - Dynamic Modeling of Bombing Attack Threat Based on Time-series Process and Intervention Analysis Shuying Li, Tsinghua University, 1017, Building Liuqing, Tsinghua Uni., Beijing, China, 474042502@qq.com, Jun Zhuang, Shifei Shen In the recent years, various kinds of terrorist attacks occurred frequently. Among all tactics of attacks, bombing attack is the highest threat, followed by armed assault. A model for analyzing and predicting bombing attacks threat based on time-series process is developed. The model is validated by using terrorist attack data from the Global Terrorism Database between 2004 and 2014. Intervention analysis is used to analyze the sudden increase in the process. 3 - Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of ISIL and its Followers Richard John, Associate Professor, University of Southern California, 3620 McClintock Ave., Dept. of Psychology, MC-1061, Los Angeles, CA, 90266-1061, United States of America, richardj@usc.edu, Detlof Von Winterfeldt, Johannes Siebert This study addresses three questions: (1) What are the objectives of the leaders of ISIL? (2) What are the objectives of the followers of ISIL? (3) How are the two sets of objectives related? We analyzed the transcripts of interviews and presentations of 59 subject matter experts (SMEs) and conducted a separate analysis of speeches of ISIL leaders and Internet sources. In both efforts we identified and structured the strategic, fundamental, and means objectives of ISIL and its followers. alternatives for decisions with incomplete sets of alternatives. 4 - Proving the Effectiveness of an Online-course on Decision-making

4 - A Robust Resolution of Newcomb’s Paradox Thomas Weber, Associate Professor, EPFL, CDM-ODY 3.01, Station 5, Lausanne, VD, 1015, Switzerland, thomas.weber@epfl.ch Newcomb’s problem is viewed as a dynamic game. Depending on whether or not a risk-neutral agent’s belief about the move order exceeds a threshold, one obtains the one-box outcome or the two-box outcome, respectively. The findings extend to an agent with arbitrary increasing utility, featuring in general two thresholds. All solutions require only minimal assumptions about the being’s payoffs and it is always sure to predict the agent’s choice in equilibrium. Some practical settings are discussed. MC66 66-Room 113C, CC Ongoing Challenges in Airline Operations Planning Sponsor: Aviation Applications Sponsored Session Chair: Norbert Lingaya, Manager Of Optimization Technologies, Kronos Incorporated, 3535 Queen Mary Road, Suite 500, Montreal, QC H3V 1H8, Canada, nlingaya@Kronos.com 1 - Broadening the Manpower Planning Horizon with Altitude Insight Luc Charest, Operations Research Specialist, AD OPT, A Kronos Division, 3535 chemin Queen-Mary Ouest, Montréal, QC, H3V 1H8, Canada, luc.charest@kronos.com, Alain Marcotte AD OPT’s Altitude Insight addresses crew manpower planning for airline operations by producing optimized staffing plans that satisfy expected company requirements. In the short and medium term, Insight identifies position openings to be assigned and scheduled as trainings to crew members. As the horizon widens, the focus shifts to budgetary objectives with constraints on volumetric distributions. In this talk, we present some long-term manpower planning concepts and their related challenges. 2 - Improving Branching in Airline Crew Pairing Problem with Base Constraints Frederic Quesnel, GERAD, 2900 Boulevard Edouard-Montpetit, Montreal, Canada, frederic.quesnel@gerad.ca, François Soumis, Guy Desaulniers In the context of crew pairing, many of the real-world crew pairing solvers consider restrictions on the total number of working time at each crew base. These base constraints have not been often studied academically. We propose a Danzig-Wolfe decomposition formulation for crew pairing problem that includes base constraints. We show how they degrade the resolution of the problem. We propose different branching schemes to improve the computational time and the objective value of our instances. 3 - Simultaneous Airline Crew Recovery Problem Atoosa Kasirzadeh, GERAD & Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, André-Aisenstadt Building, 2920, Chemin de la Tour, 4th Floor, Montreal, Canada, atoosa.kasirzadeh@gerad.ca, François Soumis Different sources of unpredicted disturbances such as adverse weather conditions may affect the planned schedules for airline crew members. These disruptions may result in delayed or canceled flights and affect the crew schedules. Due to delay propagation, robust crew recovery problem will be very significant. We study the simultaneous cockpit recovery problem where the planned schedules are constructed using personalized scheduling approach. 4 - Airline Fleet Assignment with Stochastic Demand and Limited Re-fleeting Recourse Actions

Guy Desaulniers, Polytechnique Montreal and GERAD, 2900 Boulevard Edouard-Montpetit, Montreal, Canada, guy.desaulniers@gerad.ca, David Lasalle Ialongo

We introduce a new fleet assignment model that considers a stochastic demand and the possibility to perform re-fleeting on pre-computed chains of flights as recourse actions. This integer model is solved by the Cplex MIP solver and embedded in a loop with a passenger assignment model to compute the revenues. We report computational results on data sets derived from a North American carrier schedule involving more than 5,000 flights over a week and 20,000 passenger itineraries.

227